Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature of 19–20 °C for Beijing on September 1 under clear skies and light winds, which favor modest nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 29 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly at 18–19 °C because ensemble spreads still permit slight downward revisions if boundary-layer mixing weakens or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than expected. The 29.5 % probability assigned to 13 °C or below captures residual tail risk from any late-model shift toward stronger northerly flow. Historical early-September minima average near 15 °C, but persistent high pressure and above-normal soil moisture have kept recent nights milder, keeping the market balanced between the two leading outcomes until the final 48-hour model runs.