**Forecasts from multiple meteorological models point to a minimum temperature of roughly 10–14°C for Buenos Aires on September 17, 2026, reflecting a warming trend driven by a shift from southeasterly to northerly flow.** On September 16, persistent southeast winds and clear skies produced overnight lows near 5–8°C under strong radiative cooling. For the 17th, northerly advection is expected to raise dew points and limit cooling, with highs reaching 20–23°C and mostly clear or partly cloudy conditions. This pattern aligns with typical early-spring transitions in the region, where high-pressure systems and changing wind directions modulate overnight minima. The closely matched market-implied odds—46.5% for 6°C or below versus 39.5% for 16°C or higher—highlight genuine uncertainty in the precise overnight low. Key variables include the exact timing and strength of northerly winds, cloud cover affecting longwave radiation loss, and local urban heat-island or station-specific effects. Clear skies could allow deeper cooling than models project, while stronger advection would support milder readings. Official minimums will be determined by Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations, with final resolution likely based on the lowest hourly or daily minimum recorded at the primary station. Traders appear to be pricing in both the baseline forecast and the possibility of model error or localized variability.