**Forecast consensus for the minimum temperature in Incheon (Seoul area) on August 30 centers on 22–24°C**, with official guidance and multiple models indicating overnight lows in that narrow band amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts list a 22°C minimum alongside a 28°C daytime high, while other sources such as the Met Office project 23°C lows and several numerical models show 21–25°C depending on exact timing and location. Key differentiating factors include the degree of nocturnal cloud cover and any residual rain, which limit radiative cooling under high humidity typical of late-summer East Asian monsoon conditions. Light winds (generally 2–5 m/s) reduce mixing, but widespread overcast skies prevent sharper drops below 22°C. Steadier clearing or drier air would favor the lower-probability 21°C or below outcomes, whereas any unexpected warm advection or reduced precipitation could push the minimum toward 24–25°C. With the event only two days away, traders are weighting the latest KMA and ensemble guidance most heavily; small shifts in 48-hour model runs or updated local observations will likely tighten probabilities further around the 23°C and 24°C contracts.