Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Nothing" at 76.5% for May, reflecting a stable geopolitical landscape despite persistent tensions, as no major escalatory events have materialized in the past week. The U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its third month under Operation Epic Fury, remains at a tactical stalemate with no nuclear threats, broader alliance activations, or Strait of Hormuz blockades beyond routine U.S. sanctions warnings on shipping tolls issued in the last 48 hours. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine clashes show incremental front-line claims but no infrastructure collapses or NATO escalations, while Sudan and Middle East crises simmer without triggering global war thresholds. Historical base rates from prior "Nothing Ever Happens" markets—resolving "Nothing" about 75% of the time—bolster this positioning, with traders eyeing midterms and debt ceiling talks as low-catastrophe domestic risks through month's end.