Trader consensus on an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats post-2026 midterms—reflects sustained leads in generic congressional ballot polls (D +5.6 per Nate Silver as of April 17), consistent with historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid Donald Trump's slumping approval ratings tied to high gas prices and the ongoing Iran conflict. A surge in Republican House retirements (35 announced, 16% of their slim 217-seat majority and highest in decades) signals internal frustration with gridlock and toxicity, opening competitive seats. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race and upsets in Georgia and Florida, have bolstered momentum, though redistricting and primaries could still shift dynamics before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$34,201 Vol.
$34,201 Vol.
30 nov 2026
Sì
$34,201 Vol.
$34,201 Vol.
30 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats post-2026 midterms—reflects sustained leads in generic congressional ballot polls (D +5.6 per Nate Silver as of April 17), consistent with historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid Donald Trump's slumping approval ratings tied to high gas prices and the ongoing Iran conflict. A surge in Republican House retirements (35 announced, 16% of their slim 217-seat majority and highest in decades) signals internal frustration with gridlock and toxicity, opening competitive seats. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race and upsets in Georgia and Florida, have bolstered momentum, though redistricting and primaries could still shift dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$34,201Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats post-2026 midterms—reflects sustained leads in generic congressional ballot polls (D +5.6 per Nate Silver as of April 17), consistent with historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid Donald Trump's slumping approval ratings tied to high gas prices and the ongoing Iran conflict. A surge in Republican House retirements (35 announced, 16% of their slim 217-seat majority and highest in decades) signals internal frustration with gridlock and toxicity, opening competitive seats. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race and upsets in Georgia and Florida, have bolstered momentum, though redistricting and primaries could still shift dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volume
$34,201Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats post-2026 midterms—reflects sustained leads in generic congressional ballot polls (D +5.6 per Nate Silver as of April 17), consistent with historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid Donald Trump's slumping approval ratings tied to high gas prices and the ongoing Iran conflict. A surge in Republican House retirements (35 announced, 16% of their slim 217-seat majority and highest in decades) signals internal frustration with gridlock and toxicity, opening competitive seats. Recent special elections, including Democratic overperformance in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race and upsets in Georgia and Florida, have bolstered momentum, though redistricting and primaries could still shift dynamics before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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