Midterm elections under a Republican president have historically produced net losses for the incumbent party in the House, aligning with trader consensus on a Democratic path to 218 seats or more. Recent polling averages show Democrats ahead in the national House popular vote by roughly four points, a margin that has typically translated into sufficient seat gains given the current map. Redistricting adjustments in states such as Texas and California have shifted some districts but left Democrats needing only modest net flips. Primary contests, including California's June 2 vote, are clarifying candidate fields ahead of November 2026, while special election results continue to reflect Democratic overperformance relative to 2024 baselines. These structural and polling dynamics underpin the current 68.5% implied probability for a blue wave outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$49,219 Vol.
$49,219 Vol.
30 nov 2026
Sì
$49,219 Vol.
$49,219 Vol.
30 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfMidterm elections under a Republican president have historically produced net losses for the incumbent party in the House, aligning with trader consensus on a Democratic path to 218 seats or more. Recent polling averages show Democrats ahead in the national House popular vote by roughly four points, a margin that has typically translated into sufficient seat gains given the current map. Redistricting adjustments in states such as Texas and California have shifted some districts but left Democrats needing only modest net flips. Primary contests, including California's June 2 vote, are clarifying candidate fields ahead of November 2026, while special election results continue to reflect Democratic overperformance relative to 2024 baselines. These structural and polling dynamics underpin the current 68.5% implied probability for a blue wave outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$49,219Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfMidterm elections under a Republican president have historically produced net losses for the incumbent party in the House, aligning with trader consensus on a Democratic path to 218 seats or more. Recent polling averages show Democrats ahead in the national House popular vote by roughly four points, a margin that has typically translated into sufficient seat gains given the current map. Redistricting adjustments in states such as Texas and California have shifted some districts but left Democrats needing only modest net flips. Primary contests, including California's June 2 vote, are clarifying candidate fields ahead of November 2026, while special election results continue to reflect Democratic overperformance relative to 2024 baselines. These structural and polling dynamics underpin the current 68.5% implied probability for a blue wave outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volume
$49,219Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Midterm elections under a Republican president have historically produced net losses for the incumbent party in the House, aligning with trader consensus on a Democratic path to 218 seats or more. Recent polling averages show Democrats ahead in the national House popular vote by roughly four points, a margin that has typically translated into sufficient seat gains given the current map. Redistricting adjustments in states such as Texas and California have shifted some districts but left Democrats needing only modest net flips. Primary contests, including California's June 2 vote, are clarifying candidate fields ahead of November 2026, while special election results continue to reflect Democratic overperformance relative to 2024 baselines. These structural and polling dynamics underpin the current 68.5% implied probability for a blue wave outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti