Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York’s 19th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Riley ran unopposed in the Democratic primary after defeating the prior Republican incumbent by fewer than three points in 2024, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party’s nomination with over 77 percent in the June primary. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+1 partisan voting index and Riley’s substantial fundraising edge of roughly $4.8 million to Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent polling or events suggesting a competitive shift. A national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout in rural counties, or late-cycle developments affecting Riley could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNY-19 House Election Winner
NY-19 House Election Winner
$19,151 Vol.
$19,151 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$19,151 Vol.
$19,151 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$8,657 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$10,493 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York’s 19th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Riley ran unopposed in the Democratic primary after defeating the prior Republican incumbent by fewer than three points in 2024, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party’s nomination with over 77 percent in the June primary. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+1 partisan voting index and Riley’s substantial fundraising edge of roughly $4.8 million to Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent polling or events suggesting a competitive shift. A national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout in rural counties, or late-cycle developments affecting Riley could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$19,151Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York’s 19th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Riley ran unopposed in the Democratic primary after defeating the prior Republican incumbent by fewer than three points in 2024, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party’s nomination with over 77 percent in the June primary. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+1 partisan voting index and Riley’s substantial fundraising edge of roughly $4.8 million to Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent polling or events suggesting a competitive shift. A national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout in rural counties, or late-cycle developments affecting Riley could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,151Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York’s 19th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Riley ran unopposed in the Democratic primary after defeating the prior Republican incumbent by fewer than three points in 2024, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party’s nomination with over 77 percent in the June primary. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+1 partisan voting index and Riley’s substantial fundraising edge of roughly $4.8 million to Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Trader consensus at 98 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural advantages and the absence of recent polling or events suggesting a competitive shift. A national Republican wave, unusually high GOP turnout in rural counties, or late-cycle developments affecting Riley could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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