Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York's 19th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 97.3% implied probability of victory. Riley won the seat in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the June Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party's nomination by a wide margin. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district's slight Democratic lean on partisan voting indices, Riley's incumbency advantage, and recent fundraising and structural factors. This consensus aligns with the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national swings could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNY-19 House Election Winner
NY-19 House Election Winner
$19,151 Vol.
$19,151 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$19,151 Vol.
$19,151 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$8,657 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$10,493 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York's 19th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 97.3% implied probability of victory. Riley won the seat in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the June Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party's nomination by a wide margin. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district's slight Democratic lean on partisan voting indices, Riley's incumbency advantage, and recent fundraising and structural factors. This consensus aligns with the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national swings could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$19,151Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York's 19th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 97.3% implied probability of victory. Riley won the seat in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the June Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party's nomination by a wide margin. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district's slight Democratic lean on partisan voting indices, Riley's incumbency advantage, and recent fundraising and structural factors. This consensus aligns with the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national swings could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,151Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in New York's 19th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 97.3% implied probability of victory. Riley won the seat in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the June Democratic primary, while Republican nominee Peter Oberacker secured his party's nomination by a wide margin. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district's slight Democratic lean on partisan voting indices, Riley's incumbency advantage, and recent fundraising and structural factors. This consensus aligns with the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national swings could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti