Christina Bohannan secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s 1st congressional district in the June 2 primary, setting up a rematch against incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who also advanced easily. A July poll showed Bohannan leading Miller-Meeks 40% to 35% among likely voters, with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting its status as one of the nation’s closest districts after Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 victory. National conditions, including elevated consumer prices and lower presidential approval, have heightened vulnerability for the Republican incumbent in this southeast Iowa swing district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of winning on November 3, consistent with the polling margin and structural competitiveness.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIA-01 House Election Winner
IA-01 House Election Winner
$27,476 Vol.
$27,476 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
71%
Republican Party
30%
$27,476 Vol.
$27,476 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$18,286 Vol.
71%
Republican Party
$9,190 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s 1st congressional district in the June 2 primary, setting up a rematch against incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who also advanced easily. A July poll showed Bohannan leading Miller-Meeks 40% to 35% among likely voters, with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting its status as one of the nation’s closest districts after Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 victory. National conditions, including elevated consumer prices and lower presidential approval, have heightened vulnerability for the Republican incumbent in this southeast Iowa swing district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of winning on November 3, consistent with the polling margin and structural competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
Volume
$27,476Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s 1st congressional district in the June 2 primary, setting up a rematch against incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who also advanced easily. A July poll showed Bohannan leading Miller-Meeks 40% to 35% among likely voters, with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting its status as one of the nation’s closest districts after Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 victory. National conditions, including elevated consumer prices and lower presidential approval, have heightened vulnerability for the Republican incumbent in this southeast Iowa swing district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of winning on November 3, consistent with the polling margin and structural competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,476Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Christina Bohannan secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa’s 1st congressional district in the June 2 primary, setting up a rematch against incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who also advanced easily. A July poll showed Bohannan leading Miller-Meeks 40% to 35% among likely voters, with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting its status as one of the nation’s closest districts after Miller-Meeks’s narrow 2024 victory. National conditions, including elevated consumer prices and lower presidential approval, have heightened vulnerability for the Republican incumbent in this southeast Iowa swing district. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of winning on November 3, consistent with the polling margin and structural competitiveness.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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