Recent polls conducted after Amcha Yisrael submitted its candidate list place the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset representation. Results range from zero seats in some surveys to four or five in others, reflecting volatility as the party draws support primarily from Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud voters ahead of the October 27 election. The party’s late August launch and independent run have produced inconsistent polling averages around 2–4%, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probabilities to outcomes below 4%. Scheduled events such as final campaign weeks and any late shifts in undecided voters could still alter final results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2,5-3,25% 41%
<2,5% 28%
3,25-4% 27%
5%+ 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
<2,5%
45%
2,5-3,25%
41%
3,25-4%
27%
4-5%
34%
5%+
27%
2,5-3,25% 41%
<2,5% 28%
3,25-4% 27%
5%+ 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
<2,5%
$20 Vol.
45%
2,5-3,25%
$0 Vol.
41%
3,25-4%
$0 Vol.
27%
4-5%
$13 Vol.
34%
5%+
$32 Vol.
27%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after Amcha Yisrael submitted its candidate list place the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset representation. Results range from zero seats in some surveys to four or five in others, reflecting volatility as the party draws support primarily from Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud voters ahead of the October 27 election. The party’s late August launch and independent run have produced inconsistent polling averages around 2–4%, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probabilities to outcomes below 4%. Scheduled events such as final campaign weeks and any late shifts in undecided voters could still alter final results.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$66Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after Amcha Yisrael submitted its candidate list place the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset representation. Results range from zero seats in some surveys to four or five in others, reflecting volatility as the party draws support primarily from Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud voters ahead of the October 27 election. The party’s late August launch and independent run have produced inconsistent polling averages around 2–4%, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probabilities to outcomes below 4%. Scheduled events such as final campaign weeks and any late shifts in undecided voters could still alter final results.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$66Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls conducted after Amcha Yisrael submitted its candidate list place the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset representation. Results range from zero seats in some surveys to four or five in others, reflecting volatility as the party draws support primarily from Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and Likud voters ahead of the October 27 election. The party’s late August launch and independent run have produced inconsistent polling averages around 2–4%, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probabilities to outcomes below 4%. Scheduled events such as final campaign weeks and any late shifts in undecided voters could still alter final results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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