Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54 percent of the vote against Republican Bob Smith’s 36 percent in California’s 24th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. The district carries a D+13 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, and independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Carbajal’s fundraising advantage and established record further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, outcomes that remain statistically remote given the district’s structural lean and primary results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-24
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-24
$50,756 Vol.
$50,756 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$50,756 Vol.
$50,756 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$32,466 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$18,289 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54 percent of the vote against Republican Bob Smith’s 36 percent in California’s 24th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. The district carries a D+13 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, and independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Carbajal’s fundraising advantage and established record further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, outcomes that remain statistically remote given the district’s structural lean and primary results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$50,756Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54 percent of the vote against Republican Bob Smith’s 36 percent in California’s 24th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. The district carries a D+13 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, and independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Carbajal’s fundraising advantage and established record further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, outcomes that remain statistically remote given the district’s structural lean and primary results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,756Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54 percent of the vote against Republican Bob Smith’s 36 percent in California’s 24th congressional district, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. The district carries a D+13 partisan voter index, reflecting consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and Senate contests, and independent ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Carbajal’s fundraising advantage and established record further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, outcomes that remain statistically remote given the district’s structural lean and primary results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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