California's 26th congressional district has long favored Democrats, with former Representative Julia Brownley securing consistent double-digit victories before her retirement. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who led with over 41% of the vote, and Republican Sam Gallucci. Irwin's strong primary performance, combined with the district's voter registration edge and historical partisan patterns, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a major unforeseen development affecting one candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Ventura County seat. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-26
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-26
$32,154 Vol.
$32,154 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$32,154 Vol.
$32,154 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$16,426 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$15,728 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district has long favored Democrats, with former Representative Julia Brownley securing consistent double-digit victories before her retirement. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who led with over 41% of the vote, and Republican Sam Gallucci. Irwin's strong primary performance, combined with the district's voter registration edge and historical partisan patterns, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a major unforeseen development affecting one candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Ventura County seat. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$32,154Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district has long favored Democrats, with former Representative Julia Brownley securing consistent double-digit victories before her retirement. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who led with over 41% of the vote, and Republican Sam Gallucci. Irwin's strong primary performance, combined with the district's voter registration edge and historical partisan patterns, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a major unforeseen development affecting one candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Ventura County seat. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,154Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 26th congressional district has long favored Democrats, with former Representative Julia Brownley securing consistent double-digit victories before her retirement. The June 2026 primary produced a clear general-election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who led with over 41% of the vote, and Republican Sam Gallucci. Irwin's strong primary performance, combined with the district's voter registration edge and historical partisan patterns, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a major unforeseen development affecting one candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Ventura County seat. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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