Russia’s September 2026 State Duma elections require parties to surpass a 5% national threshold for proportional seats. Recent VTsIOM and other polls place Yabloko support near 3%, consistent with its 1.34% result in 2021. The liberal opposition party, the only registered group openly advocating a ceasefire, has encountered repeated administrative barriers, including court rulings barring key figures such as Nikolai Rybakov, foreign-agent designations for several candidates, and restrictions on regional campaigning. These constraints have limited visibility and organizational capacity despite the Central Election Commission’s July registration of its federal list. Traders therefore assign a 91.5% probability that Yabloko will again fall short of the threshold.