Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation shortfalls from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas, has expanded D3–D4 areas and created uncertainty in the exact number of states reaching exceptional drought on the September 8 U.S. Drought Monitor. Official analyses show degradations in the southern Plains alongside localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming from scattered monsoon moisture, while soil moisture deficits and streamflow data from NOAA and USGS indicate borderline conditions in several additional states. Model consensus on short-term rainfall and evaporative demand remains variable, with the developing strong El Niño pattern offering limited near-term relief. These factors keep market-implied probabilities tightly clustered, as small shifts in observed impacts or forecast revisions could alter the state count by several categories before the next map release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti stati saranno in D4 (siccità eccezionale) — settimana dell'8 settembre 2026?
Quanti stati saranno in D4 (siccità eccezionale) — settimana dell'8 settembre 2026?
10 o più stati 51%
7-9 stati 50%
0 stati 50%
1-2 stati 50%
NUOVO
NUOVO
10 set 2026
0 stati
50%
1-2 stati
50%
3-4 stati
50%
5-6 stati
50%
7-9 stati
50%
10 o più stati
51%
10 o più stati 51%
7-9 stati 50%
0 stati 50%
1-2 stati 50%
NUOVO
NUOVO
10 set 2026
0 stati
$0 Vol.
50%
1-2 stati
$0 Vol.
50%
3-4 stati
$0 Vol.
50%
5-6 stati
$0 Vol.
50%
7-9 stati
$0 Vol.
50%
10 o più stati
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation shortfalls from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas, has expanded D3–D4 areas and created uncertainty in the exact number of states reaching exceptional drought on the September 8 U.S. Drought Monitor. Official analyses show degradations in the southern Plains alongside localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming from scattered monsoon moisture, while soil moisture deficits and streamflow data from NOAA and USGS indicate borderline conditions in several additional states. Model consensus on short-term rainfall and evaporative demand remains variable, with the developing strong El Niño pattern offering limited near-term relief. These factors keep market-implied probabilities tightly clustered, as small shifts in observed impacts or forecast revisions could alter the state count by several categories before the next map release.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Mercato aperto: Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
10 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation shortfalls from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas, has expanded D3–D4 areas and created uncertainty in the exact number of states reaching exceptional drought on the September 8 U.S. Drought Monitor. Official analyses show degradations in the southern Plains alongside localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming from scattered monsoon moisture, while soil moisture deficits and streamflow data from NOAA and USGS indicate borderline conditions in several additional states. Model consensus on short-term rainfall and evaporative demand remains variable, with the developing strong El Niño pattern offering limited near-term relief. These factors keep market-implied probabilities tightly clustered, as small shifts in observed impacts or forecast revisions could alter the state count by several categories before the next map release.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$0Data di fine
10 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation shortfalls from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas, has expanded D3–D4 areas and created uncertainty in the exact number of states reaching exceptional drought on the September 8 U.S. Drought Monitor. Official analyses show degradations in the southern Plains alongside localized improvements in Colorado and Wyoming from scattered monsoon moisture, while soil moisture deficits and streamflow data from NOAA and USGS indicate borderline conditions in several additional states. Model consensus on short-term rainfall and evaporative demand remains variable, with the developing strong El Niño pattern offering limited near-term relief. These factors keep market-implied probabilities tightly clustered, as small shifts in observed impacts or forecast revisions could alter the state count by several categories before the next map release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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