Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination for the Texas U.S. Senate seat after defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff primary. Trump’s endorsement one week before the contest consolidated support among the party base following a March primary in which neither candidate reached a majority. Paxton’s victory, projected at roughly 64 percent of the vote, reflects the influence of presidential backing in Republican primaries and the challenger’s alignment with core voter priorities on issues such as border security and federal spending. Other listed candidates, including Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt, received negligible support and did not advance. While the market prices indicate near-certainty of resolution in Paxton’s favor, late-stage certification disputes or procedural challenges remain theoretically possible though historically rare in Texas primaries.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKen Paxton wins Texas Republican Senate primary runoff
Ken Paxton won the Republican primary runoff against John Cornyn on May 26, 2026, securing the party's nomination for U.S. Senate. This event finalized the market's resolution with Paxton's price reaching near certainty.
Ken Paxton wins Texas Republican Senate primary, defeating John Cornyn and others
Ken Paxton surges to 96%39%
Ken Paxton secured a decisive victory in the Texas Republican Senate primary, with market prices reflecting his overwhelming win and the collapse of support for other candidates including Cornyn and Hunt.
Final poll shows Cornyn lagging far behind Paxton ahead of May runoff
John Cornyn plunges to 6%38%
Final pre‑runoff poll showed Cornyn far behind Paxton, pushing his market price down to the endpoint of 6%.
Market closes with Ken Paxton as the projected winner
Ken Paxton surges to 95%40%
The market reached its final resolution point, reflecting the overwhelming consensus and price movement favoring Ken Paxton as the primary winner.
Final pre‑runoff poll shows Paxton leading with 63% confidence
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%6%
The latest poll ahead of the May 26 runoff placed Paxton ahead, solidifying his market price at the endpoint of 63% and confirming his frontrunner status.
President Donald Trump endorses Ken Paxton in Texas Senate runoff
Ken Paxton surges to 100%41%
Trump's endorsement of Paxton days before the May 26 runoff significantly boosted Paxton's support among Republican voters, reflected in a sharp market price increase to 100%.
Ken Paxton surges to near-certain win in Texas GOP Senate runoff
Ken Paxton surges to 95%38%
In the runoff election, Ken Paxton's support surged dramatically, reflecting consolidation of conservative voters and Trump's base, pushing his market price to 95%.
Ken Paxton surges to lead in runoff ahead of May 26 primary
Ken Paxton surges to 95%34%
In the lead-up to the runoff, Paxton's campaign gained significant momentum, reflected in a sharp market price increase, positioning him as the favorite to win the Republican nomination.
Donald Trump endorses Ken Paxton ahead of Texas Senate primary runoff
Ken Paxton surges to 100%40%
President Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton for the Republican Senate runoff, significantly boosting Paxton's prospects and causing a sharp increase in his market price. Trump's endorsement is influential among Texas Republican voters and was pivotal in the final phase of the primary.
Ken Paxton rallies in Tyler to encourage early voting in Republican primary runoff
Ken Paxton surges to 100%40%
Paxton's campaign rally in Tyler during early voting for the runoff energized his base and likely contributed to his surge in market price leading up to the May 26 runoff election.
Ken Paxton wins Texas Republican Senate primary runoff
Ken Paxton surges to 95%38%
Ken Paxton won the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff held on May 26, 2026, decisively increasing his market price to 95%. This victory confirmed his position as the Republican nominee, ending John Cornyn’s long tenure.
Ken Paxton surges in polls ahead of Texas GOP Senate runoff
Ken Paxton surges to 95%39%
Paxton’s polling surged dramatically just before the May 26 runoff, reflecting increased support from Trump-aligned voters and consolidating his position as the likely nominee.
Paxton secures $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital on gender‑care dispute
Ken Paxton surges to 95%33%
Attorney General Ken Paxton announced a $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender‑affirming care. The deal positioned Paxton as a decisive opponent of the hospital’s policies, prompting a sharp rise in market confidence that he would win the Republican Senate primary.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new TV ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 95%39%
The ad underscored Paxton’s alignment with Trump, energizing his base and driving a sharp price jump toward the market’s endpoint.
Ken Paxton surges to near-certain primary win days before election
Ken Paxton surges to 95%40%
In the final days before the primary, Paxton's support surged dramatically, reflecting strong voter consolidation behind him and diminishing prospects for Cornyn and other challengers.
Ken Paxton announces settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender-affirming care
Ken Paxton surges to 94%39%
Ken Paxton announced a legal settlement requiring Texas Children’s Hospital to cease gender-affirming care for minors and establish a detransition clinic, bolstering his conservative credentials and likely increasing his support among GOP primary voters ahead of the runoff.
Texas Republican Party announces primary debate featuring Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt
Ken Paxton rises to 62%4%
The debate gave Paxton a platform to attack Cornyn, nudging his price back up to 62% while Cornyn slipped to 39%, reflecting voter reactions to the performances.
Texas Attorney General Paxton secures $10 million settlement with children’s hospital over gender‑care case
Ken Paxton surges to 95%39%
Attorney General Ken Paxton announced a settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender‑affirming care. The high‑profile deal gave Paxton a media boost and lifted his market probability sharply.
Cornyn’s price falls to 43% after poll shows Paxton leading primary field
John Cornyn dips to 43%1%
A statewide poll released on May 2 placed Paxton ahead of Cornyn, causing Cornyn’s price to dip from 44% to 43% and reinforcing Paxton’s momentum.
RNC fundraising outpaces Democrats, boosting GOP primary confidence
Ken Paxton surges to 58%35%
The RNC’s cash advantage signaled strong party support for GOP candidates, nudging Paxton’s price upward as donors rallied behind his campaign.
Ken Paxton announces legal settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender care
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%6%
Ken Paxton announced a $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital regarding gender-affirming care for minors, reinforcing his conservative credentials and boosting his support ahead of the runoff. This event was seen as a strategic move to consolidate his base.
Cornyn’s campaign spends $30 million on TV ads targeting Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn rises to 43%4%
Heavy ad spending helped stabilize Cornyn’s price at 43% after earlier volatility, reflecting renewed confidence among establishment voters.
Cornyn's campaign struggles amid shifting GOP primary dynamics
John Cornyn dips to 39%4%
John Cornyn's campaign faced difficulties as GOP voters favored more aggressive, Trump-aligned candidates like Paxton, leading to a decline in his market price and diminishing chances of winning the nomination.
John Cornyn holds rally in Austin amid tight primary race
John Cornyn rises to 42%4%
Cornyn held a rally in Austin to rally supporters and counter Paxton's momentum, but his market support remained below Paxton's, reflecting ongoing challenges in the primary.
John Cornyn’s campaign suffers after scandal over undisclosed offshore accounts emerges
John Cornyn dips to 60%4%
Revelations about Cornyn’s offshore holdings caused his price to dip from 64% to 60% by April 28, reflecting voter wariness.
Paxton’s price rebounds to 61% after releasing new policy proposal on school vouchers
Ken Paxton jumps to 61%13%
Paxton’s proposal to tighten voucher eligibility resonated with conservative voters, lifting his price from 48% to 61% on Apr 12, 2026.
Cornyn’s price dips after fundraising report shows lag behind Paxton
John Cornyn dips to 57%4%
A report revealed Cornyn’s fundraising trailing Paxton’s, causing a modest decline in his market price as donors shifted support.
Cornell’s campaign holds rally in Austin
John Cornyn surges to 60%16%
Cornell’s Austin rally aimed to solidify his base after the poll surge, stabilizing his price amid a volatile primary environment.
Ken Paxton airs new television ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 61%17%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s close ties to former President Trump, helping him recover some support after the March legal loss and lifting his price back above the 60% level.
Ken Paxton’s price climbs to 62% after securing endorsement from a major Texas PAC
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%5%
A prominent Texas political action committee endorsed Paxton, boosting his price from 57% to 62% as the endorsement signaled establishment backing.
Ken Paxton rebounds after releasing new campaign strategy focusing on border security
Ken Paxton surges to 64%41%
Paxton’s refreshed messaging on border security restored voter confidence, lifting his price from 23% to 64% by April 7.
Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler, Texas, intensifying primary campaign
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton held a major rally in Tyler, energizing his base and increasing his visibility in the primary race, which contributed to a rise in his market support.
Ken Paxton regains momentum in Texas Senate primary runoff race
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton's campaign regained strength in the runoff phase, reflected by a market price increase to 63%, as he consolidated support among Republican voters and leveraged his base effectively.
Paxton’s price falls 23 points after legal setback
Ken Paxton plunges to 53%23%
A court ruling limited Paxton’s ability to pursue a voter‑registration lawsuit, hurting his perceived electability and pulling his price down sharply.
Paxton’s price rebounds after rally in Tyler
Ken Paxton drops to 70%14%
A high‑energy rally where Paxton framed himself as a victim of establishment persecution lifted his odds, pushing his price back up.
Paxton releases opinion supporting exclusion of schools from voucher program
Ken Paxton plunges to 24%20%
Paxton’s legal opinion on school vouchers drew criticism from civil‑rights groups, causing a further decline in his market price as voters questioned his policy stance.
Newsweek poll puts Paxton far ahead of Cornyn in Texas Senate primary
Ken Paxton surges to 90%25%
A Newsweek‑cited poll showed Paxton at 62 % versus Cornyn’s 28 %, causing Paxton’s price to spike to the mid‑80 % range before the market corrected later in March.
Newsweek poll shows Cornyn trailing sharply in Texas Senate primary
John Cornyn plunges to 5%28%
The same Newsweek poll that favored Paxton caused Cornyn’s market price to plunge from the high‑30 % range to single‑digit levels (≈5 %).
Ken Paxton rallies in Tyler, emphasizing anti‑establishment stance
Ken Paxton jumps to 61%5%
Paxton’s rally reinforced his outsider image and attracted Trump‑aligned voters, contributing to a modest price rebound.
Ken Paxton rebounds to 44% after issuing apology for ad controversy
Ken Paxton surges to 44%30%
Paxton’s public apology and clarification helped recover some support, lifting his price from 14% to 44% as moderate voters returned.
Cornyn rebounds in latest Texas Senate GOP poll
John Cornyn surges to 61%47%
A second poll showed a brief resurgence for Cornyn, pushing his market price up to 61 % before a rapid decline later in the week as Paxton’s ad campaign intensified.
John Cornyn’s poll surge to 80% after debate performance
John Cornyn surges to 80%62%
Cornyn’s strong showing in a televised debate against Paxton and Hunt improved his standing among primary voters, causing a sharp, short‑term price increase.
Stephen Colbert pulls James Talarico interview over FCC equal‑time concerns
Ken Paxton surges to 56%18%
The media controversy highlighted the intensity of the Senate primaries, drawing attention to Republican candidates and indirectly benefiting Paxton’s visibility.
John Cornyn’s price spikes to 79% after aggressive fundraising report
John Cornyn surges to 79%61%
A report detailing Cornyn’s $30 million out‑of‑state fundraising effort against Paxton and Hunt reassured donors, temporarily lifting his market price before a rapid decline.
Ken Paxton's office enforces Texas 'bathroom bill' against Austin ISD
Ken Paxton rises to 84%1%
Paxton's enforcement of the controversial Senate Bill 8 reinforced his conservative credentials during the runoff period, likely consolidating support among the GOP base and contributing to his price rise.
Cornell surges after poll shows him leading primary field
John Cornyn surges to 78%58%
A poll released showing Cornyn ahead of his rivals sparked a dramatic price jump, reflecting renewed voter confidence in the incumbent’s viability.
John Cornyn’s market price jumps to 79% after poll surge
John Cornyn surges to 79%59%
A new poll showed Cornyn leading the Republican primary field, driving his price sharply upward and briefly overtaking Paxton’s momentum.
John Cornyn’s ad blitz pushes his market price to 78%
John Cornyn surges to 78%44%
A surge in television advertising funded by Cornyn’s campaign and super‑PACs dramatically improved his standing, lifting his price from 34% on Feb 4 to 78% on Mar 8 as voters perceived him as a viable alternative to Paxton and Hunt.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes after court rules he cannot shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton plunges to 23%60%
A federal judge’s decision limiting Paxton’s voter‑registration lawsuit hurt his credibility, dropping his price from 83% to 23% within days.
John Cornyn's support surges after aggressive campaign spending
John Cornyn surges to 87%61%
Cornyn's campaign and aligned super PACs heavily outspent rivals, leading to a sharp increase in his primary support, though volatility remained high due to the competitive field.
Market reacts to uncertainty post-Texas primary with sharp price swings
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%70%
Following the primary, market prices for Paxton and Cornyn fluctuated significantly as investors digested the possibility of a runoff and the evolving political dynamics, causing Paxton's price to drop to 15% and then rebound.
Cornyn briefly rebounds to 77% after new ad campaign
John Cornyn surges to 77%58%
A late‑stage television ad attack on Paxton’s legal controversies gave Cornyn a short‑term boost, reflected in a temporary price rise.
Cornyn’s price drops sharply after controversial interview on immigration policy
John Cornyn plunges to 33%44%
A televised interview where Cornyn appeared soft on immigration caused his price to fall from 77% to 33% by Mar 30, 2026, reflecting voter concerns.
Poll shows Cornyn trailing Paxton and Hunt in Texas GOP Senate race
John Cornyn surges to 61%28%
A poll released by a reputable Texas political analytics firm showed Cornyn falling to 30 % while Paxton surged, reflecting voter fatigue with the incumbent and boosting Paxton’s market odds.
John Cornyn’s poll lead collapses after Trump hints at possible endorsement for Paxton
John Cornyn plunges to 16%68%
Speculation that Trump might back Paxton caused Cornyn’s support to tumble, dropping his price from 84% to 16% within two days.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes to 14% amid backlash to controversial ad
Ken Paxton plunges to 14%60%
A backlash to Paxton’s ad featuring Trump footage caused his price to tumble from 74% to 14% within days, indicating voter aversion to the tone of the messaging.
Poll surge for John Cornyn amid volatile primary race
John Cornyn surges to 61%47%
John Cornyn's support surged dramatically in early March, briefly overtaking Paxton in polls, reflecting a volatile race dynamic before Paxton regained momentum.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump airs, boosting his primary support
Ken Paxton jumps to 74%14%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips with Donald Trump, leveraging Trump's popularity among GOP voters to increase Paxton's support in the primary race against Cornyn and Hunt.
John Cornyn's support spikes briefly amid campaign efforts
John Cornyn surges to 63%47%
Cornyn's price surged sharply, likely due to intensified campaign spending and efforts to counter Paxton and Hunt, but this was short-lived as Paxton regained momentum soon after.
Cornyn’s super‑PAC spends $30 million on TV ads ahead of primary
John Cornyn surges to 64%51%
AdImpact reported a $30 million ad surge by Cornyn’s super‑PAC, temporarily boosting his odds before a rapid reversal later in March.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton plunges to 11%74%
A U.S. District Judge ruled Paxton lacked proof to revoke Jolt Initiative’s charter, dealing a major legal blow to Paxton’s voter‑suppression strategy and triggering a sharp decline in his market price.
John Cornyn surges in polls, briefly leading in Republican Senate primary race
John Cornyn surges to 91%61%
John Cornyn experienced a significant surge in support, briefly leading the primary race according to polls. This caused a sharp increase in his market price and a corresponding drop for Paxton.
Market volatility follows primary campaign developments
Ken Paxton plunges to 11%73%
The market experienced a sharp correction in Paxton's favor following intense campaign activity and shifting voter sentiment in the final weeks before the primary.
John Cornyn surges in Texas Senate primary market amid campaign efforts
John Cornyn surges to 61%48%
John Cornyn’s market price surged from 13% to 61% around early March 2026, likely reflecting intensified campaign efforts and endorsements as the March 3 primary approached. However, this surge was short-lived as Paxton regained momentum.
Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff after Texas GOP primary
Ken Paxton dips to 41%3%
In the March 3, 2026 primary, no candidate secured over 50%, leading to a runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, confirming the market's anticipation of a runoff scenario.
John Cornyn's Senate primary odds peak amid campaign spending surge
John Cornyn surges to 91%70%
John Cornyn's odds surged to 91% on March 4, 2026, following heavy campaign spending and advertising by Cornyn and aligned super PACs, attempting to counter Paxton and Wesley Hunt's challenges. This peak was short-lived as Paxton's momentum resumed.
John Cornyn’s poll surge to 91% after major super‑PAC ad buy
John Cornyn surges to 84%56%
A massive influx of super‑PAC advertising for Cornyn pushed his price sharply upward from 28% to 84%, reflecting heightened voter confidence in his incumbency.
Cornyn’s price surges to 91% after winning a major fundraising milestone
John Cornyn surges to 91%57%
Cornyn’s campaign disclosed a $30 million fundraising haul, pushing his price from 34% to 91% on Mar 4, 2026.
President Trump teases endorsement in Texas Senate runoff
Following the primary, President Trump announced an imminent endorsement in the Cornyn-Paxton runoff, signaling his influence in the race and affecting market perceptions of the candidates' chances.
Cornyn and Paxton lead Texas GOP Senate primary, heading to runoff
In the March 3 primary, Cornyn and Paxton emerged as the top two candidates but neither secured a majority, forcing a runoff. This result confirmed the intense competition and set the stage for a decisive May runoff.
President Trump teases imminent endorsement in Texas Senate GOP runoff
Ken Paxton jumps to 83%14%
Following the primary, Trump announced an imminent endorsement in the Cornyn-Paxton runoff, boosting Paxton's market price significantly as Trump's backing is influential among Texas GOP voters.
Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff after Texas Republican primary
No candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the March 3 primary, leading to a runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. This confirmed the market's expectation of a runoff and intensified focus on these two candidates.
John Cornyn’s price spikes to 91% after surprise poll shows lead over Paxton
John Cornyn surges to 91%51%
A poll released showing Cornyn briefly ahead of Paxton caused his price to surge from 40% to 91% by March 4, before a rapid reversal as new information about Paxton’s legal standing emerged.
Colbert pulls James Talarico interview over FCC equal‑time concerns
Ken Paxton plunges to 21%53%
The media controversy surrounding the pulled interview heightened scrutiny of the Democratic primary but also distracted from the Republican race, contributing to a sharp decline in Paxton’s price from 74% to 21% as voters focused on broader campaign turbulence.
John Cornyn tops new poll showing 84% support among Republican primary voters
John Cornyn surges to 78%65%
A poll released on March 4 showed Cornyn surging to 84%, driving his market price up from a low of 13% on Feb 22 to 78% the next day.
Paxton’s price peaks at 85% after Supreme Court decision on gender‑affirming care
Ken Paxton surges to 85%21%
The Supreme Court’s June 2025 ruling allowing states to ban gender‑affirming care, followed by Paxton’s settlement announcement, propelled his price to a high of 85% on Mar 3, 2026.
Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler and releases new Trump‑themed TV ad
Ken Paxton surges to 85%18%
Paxton’s high‑energy rally and a fresh advertisement featuring clips of him with former President Trump raised his visibility, pushing his price to a peak before the March 4 court setback.
Texas Republican primary held with Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, and Wesley Hunt
The primary election took place with Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt as main contenders. Paxton's strong conservative base and legal controversies kept him competitive, while Cornyn struggled to maintain support, leading to a runoff scenario.
Supreme Court upholds states’ right to ban gender‑affirming care for minors
Ken Paxton surges to 51%30%
The Court’s decision reinforced Texas’s restrictive policies, bolstering Paxton’s reputation among conservative voters and contributing to a rebound in his price from 21% on Mar 9 to 51% on Mar 25.
Texas Republican primary election held for U.S. Senate
The primary election took place with Ken Paxton emerging as the frontrunner, reflected in the market's sharp rise in his winning probability and the decline of other candidates' chances.
Texas Republican Senate primary results send Cornyn and Paxton to runoff; Hunt finishes third
The March 3 primary failed to produce a nominee, with Cornyn and Paxton advancing to a runoff and Hunt finishing with about 14%. This outcome confirmed the competitive nature of the race and set the stage for the decisive runoff election.
Texas Republican Senate primary election held
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%48%
The primary election took place with Ken Paxton and John Cornyn as the main contenders. Paxton's price peaked at 85% before dropping sharply, reflecting initial optimism followed by uncertainty about the final outcome.
John Cornyn and Ken Paxton advance to Republican primary runoff after March 3 primary
Neither Cornyn nor Paxton secured over 50% in the March 3 primary, leading to a runoff. This event clarified the race's dynamics, with Wesley Hunt eliminated and the market focusing on the two frontrunners.
Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete in Texas Senate primary debate
Crockett and Talarico debated in the Democratic primary, highlighting their policy differences and campaign styles, which shaped voter perceptions ahead of the March 3 primary and influenced the Democratic side of the Senate race.
John Cornyn surges in polls with strong primary debate performance
John Cornyn surges to 61%47%
Cornyn's strong debate showing temporarily boosted his support, causing a sharp price increase in the market, though it was short-lived as Paxton regained momentum later.
Texas GOP primary results show tight race between Paxton and Cornyn
Ken Paxton plunges to 21%24%
The March 3 primary results indicated a close contest between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, with neither candidate securing over 50%, making a runoff likely. Paxton's surge and Cornyn's decline were reflected in market price swings.
Texas Republican primary election held with no candidate winning majority
The primary election resulted in no candidate securing over 50%, leading to a runoff between the top two candidates, Paxton and Cornyn, reflecting the divided GOP electorate.
Texas Republican primary results: Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff
In the March 3 primary, no candidate secured a majority, with John Cornyn leading at 42% and Ken Paxton close behind at 40.5%. This result set the stage for a runoff election, causing market prices to adjust to the new dynamics.
Texas Republican Senate primary held; Paxton and Cornyn see volatile market reactions
Yes plunges to 20%55%
The March 3 primary led to dramatic market swings as initial results and reporting caused uncertainty. Paxton's price peaked then plunged sharply, reflecting confusion and speculation about the outcome and potential runoff scenarios.
Texas Republican primary held; no candidate wins majority, triggering runoff
The March primary resulted in no candidate securing over 50%, with Cornyn narrowly leading and Paxton close behind, forcing a runoff. This outcome caused market prices to fluctuate sharply, reflecting uncertainty and competition between Paxton and Cornyn.
Texas Republican Senate primary leads to runoff between Cornyn and Paxton
The March 3 primary failed to produce a nominee, sending Cornyn and Paxton to a runoff with Wesley Hunt finishing third. This outcome confirmed the competitive nature of the race and set the stage for the decisive runoff.
Divorce filing and adultery allegations hit Texas AG Paxton’s Senate bid
Ken Paxton plunges to 38%17%
Reports surfaced about Paxton’s contentious divorce and allegations of adultery, prompting a sharp dip in his market odds.
Cornyn’s price plunges 65 points after Paxton’s legal victory
John Cornyn plunges to 19%65%
The court ruling against the anti‑ESG law was interpreted as a boost for Paxton’s agenda, causing a dramatic drop in Cornyn’s odds as the race polarized further.
Jasmine Crockett launches US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising her profile and setting up a competitive Democratic primary against James Talarico, which indirectly influenced the overall Senate race environment.
Supreme Court upholds states' rights to ban gender-affirming care for minors
Ken Paxton surges to 83%27%
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in June 2025 that states can ban gender-affirming care for minors, bolstering Ken Paxton's position as he had aggressively pursued legal action against Texas Children's Hospital over such care. This ruling increased Paxton's market odds significantly to 83%.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 74%19%
The ad aimed to cement Paxton’s alignment with Trump, spurring a brief surge in his price from 55% to 74% as Trump‑aligned voters rallied.
Stephen Colbert reveals CBS pulled James Talarico interview over FCC rules
Late-night host Stephen Colbert disclosed that CBS lawyers pulled an interview with Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico due to concerns about FCC equal-time rules, drawing media attention to Talarico's campaign during early voting and potentially affecting Democratic primary dynamics.
Paxton’s price spikes to 83% after high‑profile rally with Trump video
Ken Paxton surges to 83%22%
A rally featuring video clips of Paxton with former President Trump energized his base, causing a sharp price surge for Paxton and a corresponding dip for Cornyn.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump footage airs
Ken Paxton surges to 75%15%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips of him with Donald Trump, aiming to solidify support among Trump loyalists and boost his primary chances, which corresponded with a price increase in the market.
Ken Paxton settles gender‑affirming care case with Texas Children’s Hospital
Ken Paxton surges to 78%22%
The $10 million settlement and Paxton’s announcement of a “detransition clinic” boosted his standing among conservative primary voters, driving his price upward.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new Trump‑endorsed TV spot
Ken Paxton surges to 83%41%
A Trump‑endorsed advertisement aired, pushing Paxton’s price sharply upward from 42% to 83% by February 24, reflecting a surge in Trump‑aligned voter enthusiasm.
Stephen Colbert interview with James Talarico pulled amid Texas early voting
CBS lawyers pulled an interview with Democratic candidate James Talarico due to regulatory concerns, highlighting media challenges in the Democratic primary but with limited impact on the Republican market.
Ken Paxton announces $10 million settlement with Texas and DOJ over gender‑affirming care
Ken Paxton surges to 83%21%
The settlement highlighted Paxton’s aggressive stance on cultural issues, energizing his conservative base and pushing his market probability sharply upward.
Paxton releases Trump‑themed TV ad targeting Hunt
Ken Paxton surges to 83%38%
Paxton aired a new campaign ad featuring footage of him with former President Trump, directly challenging Hunt’s narrative and causing Paxton’s price to jump from 45 % to 83 %.
Texas Children’s Hospital settles with Texas AG Ken Paxton over gender-affirming care
Ken Paxton surges to 83%35%
Texas Children’s Hospital agreed to a $10 million settlement with Texas and the Trump administration over gender-affirming care for minors, announced by Ken Paxton. This high-profile legal victory bolstered Paxton’s standing among conservative voters, reflected in a sharp price increase from 48% to 83%.
Judge rules against Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Texas Latino voting group
A federal judge blocked Paxton’s lawsuit against Jolt Initiative, a Latino voting group, undermining Paxton’s claims and impacting his campaign’s legal narrative.
Ken Paxton’s campaign rallies and increased Trump support boost his primary chances
Ken Paxton surges to 83%27%
Paxton intensified his campaign with rallies and ads featuring Trump, reinforcing his image as the anti-establishment candidate and causing a significant rise in his market price.
Ken Paxton's support surges after legal settlement with Texas Children's Hospital
Ken Paxton surges to 83%30%
Paxton announced a $10 million settlement with Texas Children's Hospital over gender-affirming care, portraying it as a victory against 'radical gender ideology,' which boosted his standing among conservative GOP primary voters.
Divorce scandal involving Ken Paxton becomes public
Ken Paxton plunges to 16%60%
Details of Paxton’s contentious divorce surfaced, causing his market price to plunge from 76% to a low of 16% within days as voters questioned his personal judgment.
Judge rules Texas anti‑ESG law unconstitutional
Ken Paxton surges to 84%19%
The decision was seen as a win for business‑friendly candidates like Paxton, bolstering his price while further hurting Cornyn’s moderate image.
Ken Paxton announces settlement with Texas Children's Hospital
Ken Paxton surges to 84%27%
Paxton's announcement of a major legal settlement regarding gender-affirming care provided a significant boost to his campaign, highlighting his aggressive stance on social issues.
Supreme Court upholds states' bans on gender-affirming care for minors
Ken Paxton surges to 76%16%
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states can ban gender-affirming care for minors, bolstering Ken Paxton's position as he had aggressively pursued legal actions against gender-affirming care providers in Texas. This ruling strengthened Paxton's standing among conservative voters.
John Cornyn’s poll surge to 90% after aggressive TV ad campaign
John Cornyn surges to 91%76%
A new wave of Cornyn‑funded television ads highlighted his experience, temporarily lifting his poll numbers and market price before a rapid decline.
Paxton’s price jumps to 73% after filing lawsuit against Latino voting group
Ken Paxton jumps to 73%13%
A federal judge’s refusal to shut down Jolt Initiative, coupled with Paxton’s aggressive legal action, boosted his perceived strength, moving his price from 60% to 73% on Feb 20, 2026.
Paxton’s ad campaign pushes his primary odds to 76%
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
Following the Trump‑focused ad, Paxton’s market price jumped to a peak of 76%, reflecting heightened enthusiasm among MAGA voters.
Ken Paxton's campaign rallies and increased advertising ahead of primary
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
Paxton intensified his campaign efforts with rallies and advertising, portraying Cornyn as out of touch and appealing to Trump's base, which contributed to a rise in his market support.
Paxton's legal challenges and divorce allegations surface during primary campaign
Ken Paxton jumps to 75%11%
Amid the primary campaign, Paxton faced renewed scrutiny over legal and personal issues, including a contentious divorce with allegations of adultery. This caused significant volatility in his market price, including sharp drops and recoveries.
Ken Paxton rallies in Tyler during U.S. Senate campaign to mobilize grassroots conservatives
Ken Paxton jumps to 66%6%
Paxton's campaign tour in Tyler aimed to energize conservative voters and encourage early voting ahead of the March primary, reinforcing his grassroots support and contributing to his market price increase.
Ken Paxton kicks off Texas‑First Victory Tour in Tyler, vows to ‘retire’ John Cornyn
Ken Paxton surges to 83%19%
During a campaign stop in Tyler, Paxton reiterated his goal to defeat Cornyn and mobilize grassroots voters. The rally coincided with a sharp price jump from the mid‑60 % range to above 80 % by the end of February.
Ken Paxton launches Texas-First Victory Tour, emphasizing conservative leadership
Ken Paxton jumps to 66%8%
Paxton's campaign tour aimed to mobilize grassroots conservatives and encourage early voting, reinforcing his conservative credentials and boosting his support ahead of the March primary.
Ken Paxton stops in Tyler during U.S. Senate campaign to rally conservative voters
Ken Paxton surges to 80%24%
Paxton launched his Texas-First Victory Tour to mobilize grassroots conservatives ahead of the March Republican Primary, emphasizing his conservative credentials and opposition to federal overreach, which helped increase his support.
Stephen Colbert says CBS lawyers pulled James Talarico interview due to FCC rules
Late-night host Stephen Colbert revealed that an interview with Democratic candidate James Talarico was pulled from broadcast over concerns about FCC equal-time rules, limiting Talarico's media exposure during early voting and potentially affecting his campaign visibility.
Wesley Hunt releases new TV ad highlighting Trump endorsement
Wesley Hunt jumps to 17%11%
Hunt launched a television ad emphasizing his early endorsement of Trump’s 2024 campaign and criticizing Cornyn’s long tenure, aiming to attract GOP voters seeking an alternative to both Cornyn and Paxton.
Turning Point Action endorses Ken Paxton in Texas GOP Senate primary
Ken Paxton jumps to 44%6%
The endorsement from Turning Point Action, a major grassroots conservative group, boosted Paxton's campaign momentum and polling, increasing his market support against Cornyn and Hunt.
Ken Paxton’s divorce filing becomes public
Ken Paxton plunges to 23%53%
The revelation of Paxton’s contentious divorce added personal scandal to his campaign, contributing to a sharp drop in his market price during the subsequent days.
James Talarico responds to allegations of racially charged comments
Talarico pushed back against allegations of racially charged remarks, which briefly affected his campaign dynamics in the Democratic primary.
Cornyn warns GOP primary runoff could hurt Republican Senate chances
John Cornyn surges to 36%23%
Cornyn’s campaign released a statement warning that a Paxton‑runoff could jeopardize the general election, giving a modest bounce to his market odds.
State Rep. James Talarico highlights Democratic wins as backlash to extremism in Texas
James Talarico, a Democratic Senate candidate, emphasized recent Democratic electoral successes in Texas as a backlash to extremism, boosting his campaign's momentum and visibility ahead of the primary.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican Texas state Senate seat
Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election flipping a reliably Republican state Senate district in Texas, signaling Democratic momentum in the state and potentially influencing perceptions of the general election environment for the Senate race.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican Texas state Senate seat
Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election flipping a reliably Republican district, signaling Democratic momentum in Texas and energizing Democratic Senate candidates.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips GOP-held Texas state Senate seat in special election
Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election in a reliably Republican district, signaling a potential shift in Texas politics and energizing Democratic candidates like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, indirectly affecting the Senate race dynamics.
Cornyn’s campaign outspends rivals, sees modest price rebound
John Cornyn jumps to 34%7%
Heavy ad spending and fundraising reports released in late January helped lift Cornyn’s price from a low of 27% on Jan 31 to 34% on Feb 4, indicating a temporary stabilization of his campaign momentum.
Ken Paxton issues opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from voucher program
Attorney General Ken Paxton released an opinion supporting the exclusion of schools linked to groups designated as foreign adversaries from Texas' school voucher program, highlighting his active role in state policy and increasing his visibility ahead of the primary.
Paxton backs veto of Islamic schools from Texas voucher program
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%10%
Paxton issued an opinion allowing the state comptroller to block Islamic schools from the new voucher program, energizing his conservative base and raising his market odds.
Ken Paxton issues legal opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from Texas voucher program
Attorney General Ken Paxton released an opinion stating that the Texas Comptroller could exclude schools tied to terrorist or foreign adversary groups from the state voucher program, a move that stirred controversy and highlighted Paxton's active role in conservative policy enforcement, boosting his profile among GOP primary voters.
Ken Paxton issues opinion allowing exclusion of Islamic schools from voucher program
Paxton released a legal opinion supporting the exclusion of certain Islamic schools from Texas’ voucher program, appealing to conservative voters and boosting his primary prospects.
Jasmine Crockett announces U.S. Senate bid in Texas, targets Trump
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her Senate campaign, raising her profile and setting up a competitive Democratic primary against James Talarico.
John Cornyn faces tough primary challenge amid shifting GOP dynamics
John Cornyn drops to 28%7%
Reports highlighted Cornyn’s struggle against Paxton and Hunt, emphasizing his moderate image and establishment ties as liabilities in a GOP increasingly favoring Trump-aligned candidates, leading to a decline in his market support.
Ken Paxton, John Cornyn Nearly Tied in Republican Senate Primary Race – Texas Politics
Ken Paxton surges to 65%21%
An Emerson College/Nexstar poll showed Paxton narrowly ahead of Cornyn (27 % vs 26 %). The near‑tie prompted a sharp swing upward for Paxton (to about 65 %) and a decline for Cornyn (to the low‑30 % range).
Poll shows Ken Paxton and John Cornyn nearly tied in Texas Republican Senate primary
An Emerson College poll indicated a close race between Paxton and Cornyn, with Wesley Hunt gaining significant support, suggesting a likely runoff. This poll reflected the divided Republican electorate and influenced market expectations of the primary outcome.
Poll shows Paxton and Cornyn nearly tied in Texas GOP Senate primary
An Emerson College poll showed Ken Paxton narrowly leading John Cornyn with Wesley Hunt gaining traction, indicating a likely runoff and a divided Republican electorate, influencing market prices accordingly.
Emerson College Poll shows Paxton and Cornyn tied in Republican Senate Primary, Hunt gaining traction
Ken Paxton dips to 61%4%
A January poll showed Paxton leading narrowly at 27%, Cornyn at 26%, and Hunt at 16%, with a runoff likely, shifting market expectations toward a Cornyn-Paxton runoff.
Poll shows Ken Paxton and John Cornyn nearly tied in Republican Senate primary race
An Emerson College poll revealed a tight race between Paxton and Cornyn, with Wesley Hunt as a potential spoiler, indicating a likely runoff. This poll influenced market prices by highlighting the competitiveness and uncertainty of the primary outcome.
Paxton’s price spikes after releasing new ad featuring Trump endorsement rumors
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%10%
Rumors that Trump would endorse Paxton lifted his market price from 55% to 65% on Jan 3, 2026.
John Cornyn wins $10 million donation from Texas GOP donors
John Cornyn jumps to 32%6%
A large donation from state GOP donors reinforced Cornyn’s establishment support, lifting his price from 26% to 32% by January 16, 2026.
Paxton releases new campaign ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton surges to 76%17%
The ad aimed to rally Trump‑aligned voters, spurring a sharp rise in Paxton’s price from 59% to 76% by mid‑February.
Ken Paxton issues opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from Texas voucher program
Attorney General Ken Paxton released a legal opinion affirming the authority to exclude schools linked to terrorist or foreign adversary groups from the Texas school voucher program. This stance aligned with conservative voters' concerns and reinforced Paxton's hardline image, contributing to his market price increase.
Texas Comptroller requests Paxton's opinion on excluding schools from voucher program
Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock sought Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal opinion on excluding certain private schools from the state voucher program based on alleged ties to foreign adversaries, highlighting Paxton's influence in state policy and energizing his conservative base.
Ken Paxton issues opinion allowing exclusion of certain schools from Texas voucher program
Ken Paxton rises to 57%2%
Paxton released a legal opinion supporting the exclusion of schools linked to groups designated as foreign adversaries from the state voucher program, appealing to conservative voters concerned about anti-Muslim rhetoric during the primary season.
Ken Paxton announces settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender care
Ken Paxton surges to 59%16%
Paxton announced a $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital regarding gender-affirming care, positioning himself as a conservative fighter which increased his support in the primary.
Texas Children’s Hospital settles with Ken Paxton over gender care lawsuit
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%8%
Texas Children’s Hospital agreed to a $10 million settlement with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over gender-affirming care for minors. Paxton announced the settlement, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters ahead of the primary.
Court unseals records in Ken Paxton's divorce case
The unsealing of divorce records increased public scrutiny of Paxton's personal life during the campaign, potentially impacting voter perceptions and market confidence in his candidacy.
John Cornyn ramps up TV advertising against primary rivals
John Cornyn jumps to 45%11%
Cornyn’s campaign spent over $30 million on television ads targeting Paxton and Hunt, reinforcing his incumbent advantage and temporarily boosting his market price.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton jumps to 63%5%
The court’s decision limited Paxton’s legal aggression, temporarily easing concerns about voter suppression and nudging his price upward from 58% to 63% as the scandal’s impact softened.
Jasmine Crockett announces Democratic Senate bid in Texas
Democrat Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the Texas Senate seat, aiming to capitalize on Paxton's vulnerabilities and energize Democratic voters. While this event primarily affected the Democratic primary, it influenced the overall race dynamics and Republican market perceptions.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett announces US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn, raising the profile of the Democratic primary and setting up a competitive race for the general election. This announcement influenced the Democratic primary dynamics but had limited direct impact on the Republican market.
Jasmine Crockett announces US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising the profile of the Democratic primary and setting up a potential general election challenge to the Republican nominee. While not directly affecting the Republican primary market, this shaped the overall race dynamics.
Cornell’s campaign outspends rivals with $30 million TV ads
John Cornyn jumps to 38%11%
Cornell’s heavy ad spending aimed to counter Paxton and Hunt, temporarily boosting his market price as voters perceived a stronger campaign effort.
John Cornyn ramps up TV advertising against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 35%7%
Cornyn’s campaign disclosed a $30 million ad buy targeting Paxton, temporarily improving his market price as voters perceived a strong defensive effort.
Cornyn launches aggressive TV ad campaign against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 55%11%
Cornyn’s super‑PAC spent heavily on ads criticizing Paxton, raising Cornyn’s price from 44% to 55% on Dec 2, 2025.
Paxton’s campaign raises $30 million in Q4 fundraising
Ken Paxton jumps to 65%6%
A massive fundraising haul reinforced Paxton’s front‑runner status, pushing his price upward as donors signaled confidence.
Social‑media rumor about Paxton’s finances sparks brief market dip
Ken Paxton drops to 44%11%
A rumor about Paxton’s personal finances spread on social media, triggering a brief decline in his market price.
John Cornyn’s campaign releases attack ad against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 51%8%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, contributing to a price dip for Paxton from 62% to 51% and a modest rise for Cornyn from 43% to 51% by December 16.
Texas AG Ken Paxton officially enters U.S. Senate race against John Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 59%9%
Ken Paxton formally announced his Senate candidacy, framing himself as the most conservative candidate and directly challenging incumbent John Cornyn, intensifying the primary battle and boosting his market support.
Ken Paxton officially enters U.S. Senate race against incumbent John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt
Ken Paxton jumps to 59%9%
Ken Paxton formally announced his Senate candidacy, framing himself as the most conservative candidate and directly challenging Cornyn. This announcement intensified the primary battle and boosted Paxton's market support significantly.
Ken Paxton officially enters Senate race against incumbent John Cornyn and Wesley Hunt
Ken Paxton formally announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, framing himself as the most conservative candidate and directly challenging incumbent John Cornyn. This official entry solidified the three-way race and influenced market prices by confirming Paxton's commitment.
Ken Paxton announces legal settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender care
Ken Paxton jumps to 44%7%
Paxton announced a $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital regarding gender-affirming care for minors, positioning himself as a conservative fighter against 'radical gender ideology.' This bolstered his support among Trump-aligned voters ahead of the GOP primary.
Cornyn’s poll numbers dip to historic low after internal party criticism
John Cornyn drops to 39%5%
A leaked internal GOP memo criticizing Cornyn’s moderate record caused his price to tumble to a trough, reflecting party‑base discontent.
Texas voters approve constitutional amendment banning non‑citizen voting
Ken Paxton rises to 48%4%
The amendment reinforced Paxton’s narrative on election integrity, giving his market price a modest boost from 44% to 48% in late November.
Paxton reaches settlement in securities‑fraud case
Ken Paxton jumps to 70%9%
Paxton’s ongoing securities‑fraud case settlement was finalized, removing a major legal cloud and allowing his campaign to refocus on the Senate race, nudging his market price upward.
Judge blocks Paxton’s suit against Latino voter‑registration group Jolt
Ken Paxton drops to 44%11%
A federal judge denied Paxton’s attempt to shut down the Latino voter‑registration group Jolt Initiative, damaging his law‑and‑order narrative and pulling his odds down.
Wesley Hunt announces run for U.S. Senate, joining Cornyn and Paxton in primary
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
Rep. Wesley Hunt entered the Republican primary, complicating the race between Paxton and Cornyn by appealing to Trump supporters without Paxton's legal baggage, though he ultimately failed to gain significant market support.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn
Wesley Hunt, a two-term U.S. Representative and early Trump endorser, announced his candidacy for the Texas Senate seat, intensifying the Republican primary and challenging incumbent John Cornyn. This entry contributed to the expectation of a runoff and shifted market probabilities away from Cornyn.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Senate bid, touts Trump endorsement
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
Hunt’s entry added a strong Trump‑aligned candidate, drawing support from the MAGA base and intensifying the primary contest, which lowered his competitors’ odds.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces U.S. Senate bid in Texas
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
Wesley Hunt's entry into the race created a three-way contest, increasing the likelihood of a runoff and complicating the path for both Cornyn and Paxton.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt officially declares Senate run
Wesley Hunt drops to 0%9%
Hunt’s entry solidified the three‑way GOP contest, confirming his zero‑percent market position as other challengers’ support collapsed.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces run for U.S. Senate, joining Cornyn and Paxton in primary
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
Wesley Hunt officially entered the Republican primary, adding complexity to the race between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton. Hunt's entry introduced a new dynamic, appealing to MAGA voters without Paxton's legal baggage, which affected market perceptions of the candidates' chances.
GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt announces run for U.S. Senate, joining Cornyn, Paxton in primary
Wesley Hunt entered the Republican primary, complicating the race between Cornyn and Paxton. Hunt's entry introduced a new dynamic, appealing to Trump supporters and potentially influencing vote splits in the primary.
Rep. Wesley Hunt enters Texas GOP Senate primary, complicating race
Wesley Hunt plunges to 20%30%
Wesley Hunt announced his candidacy for the Republican Senate primary, adding a third major contender aligned with Trump and potentially splitting the anti-Cornyn vote, increasing the likelihood of a runoff and affecting market dynamics.
GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt announces run for U.S. Senate, joining Cornyn, Paxton in primary
Ken Paxton surges to 82%32%
Hunt's entry complicated the race, with the market showing Paxton's price rising to 82% and Cornyn's falling to 14% as the primary field expanded.
Wesley Hunt announces U.S. Senate primary run, joining Cornyn and Paxton
Rep. Wesley Hunt entered the Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump ally and a fresh alternative to both Cornyn and Paxton. His entry complicated the race but did not significantly shift the frontrunner status of Paxton and Cornyn.
Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary challenge to Cornyn and Paxton
Congressman Wesley Hunt entered the Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump loyalist and appealing to voters seeking an alternative to Cornyn and Paxton. His entry increased the likelihood of a runoff and affected market dynamics by splitting the anti-Cornyn vote.
Ken Paxton’s divorce filing becomes public, raising personal scandal concerns
Ken Paxton drops to 39%9%
The revelation of Paxton’s contentious divorce added a personal scandal dimension, causing his price to fall from 48% to 39% as voters questioned his character.
Wesley Hunt releases new television advertisement
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt’s ad attacked Cornyn and positioned himself as the anti‑establishment choice, causing a modest rise in his market price before later declines.
Ken Paxton appears at rally in Tyler, attacks John Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%13%
Paxton’s rally framed Cornyn as an establishment figure, causing Paxton’s price to jump from 59% to 72% by February 1, 2026, while Cornyn’s price fell.
Paxton’s price drops after negative media coverage of securities‑fraud case
Ken Paxton drops to 59%8%
Reports highlighting Paxton’s ongoing legal vulnerabilities caused his market price to fall from 67% to 59% between Sep 14 and Sep 18, 2025.
John Cornyn raises $30 million in Q3 fundraising
John Cornyn jumps to 34%13%
Cornyn’s fundraising surge signaled strong establishment backing, temporarily boosting his market price from 21% to 34% by September 11.
Hunt gains 5 points in September poll, remains distant third
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
A statewide poll gave Hunt a modest uptick, briefly moving his market price above zero before a steady decline.
Wesley Hunt releases new television ad
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt’s ad emphasized his Trump endorsement and attacked Cornyn, giving him a modest boost in visibility and a small rise in his market price.
Rep. Chip Roy announces run for Texas Attorney General
Chip Roy's announcement to run for Attorney General signaled a potential shift in the state's political landscape, impacting the primary dynamics for other statewide offices.
Ken Paxton announces settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over gender‑affirming care
Ken Paxton jumps to 83%13%
Paxton publicized a $10 million settlement that positioned him as a defender of conservative values, boosting his primary prospects among GOP voters.
Paxton attacks Hunt as establishment candidate
Wesley Hunt drops to 0%5%
Paxton publicly accused Hunt of being a ‘creature of the Washington establishment,’ which raised Hunt’s profile and briefly lifted Hunt’s market price before Paxton’s own ads overtook the narrative.
Wesley Hunt launches TV ad featuring Trump endorsement
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt released a new television advertisement highlighting his support from former President Trump, raising his visibility and pushing his price up from 5% to 8% by early September.
Federal judge blocks Paxton’s attempt to shut down Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton drops to 60%12%
The ruling removed a legal weapon from Paxton’s campaign, causing his market price to fall from a recent high of 72% to 60% as voters questioned his tactics.
Poll shows incumbent Cornyn falling behind GOP challengers
John Cornyn drops to 20%14%
Early poll data released by the Texas Tribune showed Cornyn trailing significantly, sending his market price down.
Paxton settles gender‑care lawsuit with Texas and DOJ
Ken Paxton jumps to 70%8%
The settlement highlighted Paxton’s tough stance on gender‑affirming care, reinforcing his appeal to conservative voters and pushing his price to a 70% peak later in August.
Paxton’s poll surge after high‑profile rally in Tyler
Ken Paxton jumps to 76%14%
A large rally with Trump‑aligned supporters pushed Paxton’s perceived electability, coinciding with the price peak of 76% on August 14, 2025.
Paxton’s campaign releases new TV ad featuring Trump footage
Ken Paxton drops to 62%8%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s ties to former President Trump, boosting his appeal among MAGA voters and lifting his price sharply.
Wesley Hunt releases new TV ad targeting Cornyn’s record
Wesley Hunt jumps to 5%5%
Hunt’s ad highlighted his Trump endorsement and attacked Cornyn’s establishment ties, pushing Hunt’s price up slightly and contributing to a dip in Cornyn’s price from 44% to 35%.
John Cornyn's support declines amid rising Paxton and Hunt campaigns
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
Cornyn's price dropped as Paxton and Wesley Hunt gained traction, reflecting voter desire for more aggressive, Trump-aligned candidates. Cornyn's moderate image and establishment ties were seen as liabilities in the GOP primary.
Dawn Buckingham and Beth Van Duyne drop out of Senate race
Dawn Buckingham plunges to 0%50%
Both candidates withdrew early in the campaign, causing their market prices to fall to zero and leaving the primary contest focused on Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt.
Dawn Buckingham and Beth Van Duyne drop out of Senate race
Beth Van Duyne plunges to 0%50%
Both candidates withdrew early in the campaign, causing their market prices to fall to zero and leaving the primary contest focused on Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt.
John Cornyn rallies in Austin amid primary challenge
John Cornyn jumps to 44%10%
Cornyn’s Austin rally was an attempt to solidify his base against Paxton and Hunt, coinciding with a modest price rise from 34% to 44% as his supporters rallied.
Paxton’s campaign releases high‑budget TV ads targeting Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%12%
A surge in Paxton’s advertising spend pushed his price to a peak, while Cornyn’s price fell as voters perceived a growing anti‑incumbent wave.
Ken Paxton holds high‑energy rally in Tyler, boosting his primary momentum
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%10%
Paxton’s rally marked the start of a more visible campaign, prompting a jump in his market price from 62% to 72% as voters responded to his aggressive messaging against opponents.
Ken Paxton announces Texas Senate primary challenge amid legal controversies
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton officially entered the Texas Senate race, leveraging his recent legal victories and portraying himself as a Trump-aligned outsider, which boosted his market standing against incumbent John Cornyn.
Ken Paxton launches investigation into alleged non‑citizen voting in 2020‑22
Paxton announced a probe into claims that over 200 ballots were cast by non‑citizens in the 2020 and 2022 elections, reviving his hard‑line voter‑fraud narrative and boosting his primary prospects.
Paxton launches probe into alleged non‑citizen voting in Texas
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton announced a new investigation into non‑citizen voting claims, keeping him in headlines and lifting his market odds in July‑August 2025.
Ken Paxton announces new investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton filed a lawsuit targeting alleged non‑citizen ballot activity, positioning himself as a defender of election integrity and appealing to Trump‑aligned voters, which helped lift his market price from 50% to 62% by July 26.
Ken Paxton announces Senate run amid ongoing securities‑fraud case
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton filed paperwork to enter the Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump‑aligned outsider; the announcement lifted his market price from 50% to 62% on July 26, 2025.
Ken Paxton launches Senate campaign amid legal controversies
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Attorney General Ken Paxton officially entered the Republican primary, emphasizing his legal battles and positioning himself as a Trump‑aligned outsider, boosting his perceived viability.
Ken Paxton announces investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton’s office opened a probe into alleged non‑citizen ballots, boosting his visibility and raising his primary odds, pushing his market price from 50% to 62% by the next sample.
Ken Paxton announces entry into U.S. Senate race
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Attorney General Ken Paxton formally declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a Trump‑aligned outsider, which lifted his market price from 50% to the mid‑60s as voters reacted to his entry.
Federal judge blocks Ken Paxton's attempt to shut down Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Judge Robert Pitman ruled Paxton lacked evidence to revoke Jolt Initiative’s charter, curbing a high‑profile voter‑registration lawsuit and signaling legal setbacks for Paxton.
Judge blocks Paxton’s effort to close Latino voting group Jolt Initiative
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%8%
A federal judge rejected Paxton’s attempt to shut down the Latino voter‑registration nonprofit Jolt Initiative, undermining a high‑profile anti‑immigrant narrative and causing a temporary dip in Paxton’s market price.
Ken Paxton intensifies campaign with rally in Tyler, Texas
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton stepped up his campaign efforts with a rally in Tyler, signaling a more aggressive approach against incumbent John Cornyn. This rally helped boost Paxton's market price from 50% to 62%, reflecting increased investor confidence in his chances.
Ken Paxton’s divorce fuels backlash amid Senate primary campaign
Ken Paxton plunges to 44%26%
Reports of Paxton’s divorce filing and allegations of adultery emerged, generating negative media coverage. The scandal coincided with a drop in Paxton’s market price from a high of ~70 % in late July to the low‑40 % range by early August.
Ken Paxton's divorce announcement intensifies Senate primary race
The announcement of Ken Paxton's divorce and related personal controversies added a new dimension to the primary race, causing volatility in his support due to concerns about electability and personal conduct.
Angela Paxton announces divorce from Ken Paxton amid allegations
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Angela Paxton filed for divorce citing 'biblical grounds' amid public allegations against Ken Paxton, intensifying scrutiny and personal attacks in the primary race, causing volatility in Paxton's support.
Ken Paxton announces Texas Senate primary challenge to John Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton officially entered the Texas Republican Senate primary, challenging incumbent John Cornyn. This announcement initiated the competitive primary race, causing initial market adjustments as Paxton's candidacy introduced uncertainty.
Angela Paxton files for divorce from Ken Paxton citing adultery
Angela Paxton filed for divorce on biblical grounds, bringing personal and political scrutiny to Ken Paxton's Senate campaign. This event introduced concerns about Paxton's electability and affected his market support early in the race.
Ken Paxton's divorce announcement shakes up Texas Senate primary
The announcement of Ken Paxton's divorce and related personal scandals drew significant media attention and criticism from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, impacting perceptions of his electability but not halting his campaign momentum.
John Cornyn faces tough primary challenge from Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
Senator John Cornyn faced a significant primary challenge from Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt, both aligned with Trump, leading to a split in the anti-Cornyn vote and increasing the likelihood of a runoff. Cornyn's moderate image caused some GOP voters to shift support to Paxton and Hunt.
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