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Geopolitica·Cessate Il Fuoco In Iran

Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Cessate Il Fuoco In Iran

Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?

$4,090,881 Vol.

18 apr 2026
Polymarket

$4,090,881 Vol.

Polymarket

15 aprile

$1,369,976 Vol.

<1%

18 aprile

$532,696 Vol.

3%

21 aprile

$463,583 Vol.

11%

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump's April 7 announcement of a two-week, double-sided ceasefire with Iran, suspending U.S. bombing in exchange for Strait of Hormuz reopening, continues to hold as of April 16, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities of an early end—3% by April 18 and 11% by April 21. Diplomatic signals, including White House optimism for a deal and potential peace talks in Pakistan within days, have bolstered de-escalation hopes, with Trump stating the war is "very close to over" despite no formal extension confirmed. No verified violations have escalated tensions, though Israeli strikes and Iranian compliance on shipping remain key risks ahead of the April 21 approximate expiration.

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$4,090,881
Data di fine
21 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump's April 7 announcement of a two-week, double-sided ceasefire with Iran, suspending U.S. bombing in exchange for Strait of Hormuz reopening, continues to hold as of April 16, driving trader consensus toward low implied probabilities of an early end—3% by April 18 and 11% by April 21. Diplomatic signals, including White House optimism for a deal and potential peace talks in Pakistan within days, have bolstered de-escalation hopes, with Trump stating the war is "very close to over" despite no formal extension confirmed. No verified violations have escalated tensions, though Israeli strikes and Iranian compliance on shipping remain key risks ahead of the April 21 approximate expiration.

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$4,090,881
Data di fine
21 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

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Domande frequenti

"Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 6 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "21 aprile" a 11%, seguito da "18 aprile" a 3%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 11¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 11% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?" ha generato $4.1 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 8, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?", esplora i 6 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?" è "21 aprile" a 11%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 11% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "18 aprile" a 3%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Trump annuncia la fine del cessate il fuoco tra Stati Uniti e Iran entro...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.