Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a US bank failure by May 31 at 100% implied probability following the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of Chicago-based Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the first such failure of the year amid institution-specific credit weaknesses, with $261 million in assets and an estimated $19.7 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. This isolated event, driven by regulatory intervention rather than systemic pressures, satisfies the market's resolution criteria well ahead of the deadline, locking in near-certain Yes odds backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks remain negligible, though improbable challenges to the failure's classification under FDIC standards could theoretically arise before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$7,460 Vol.
$7,460 Vol.
31 mag 2026
$7,460 Vol.
$7,460 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a US bank failure by May 31 at 100% implied probability following the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of Chicago-based Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the first such failure of the year amid institution-specific credit weaknesses, with $261 million in assets and an estimated $19.7 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. This isolated event, driven by regulatory intervention rather than systemic pressures, satisfies the market's resolution criteria well ahead of the deadline, locking in near-certain Yes odds backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks remain negligible, though improbable challenges to the failure's classification under FDIC standards could theoretically arise before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$7,460Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a US bank failure by May 31 at 100% implied probability following the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of Chicago-based Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the first such failure of the year amid institution-specific credit weaknesses, with $261 million in assets and an estimated $19.7 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. This isolated event, driven by regulatory intervention rather than systemic pressures, satisfies the market's resolution criteria well ahead of the deadline, locking in near-certain Yes odds backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks remain negligible, though improbable challenges to the failure's classification under FDIC standards could theoretically arise before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$7,460Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a US bank failure by May 31 at 100% implied probability following the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) seizure of Chicago-based Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30, 2026—the first such failure of the year amid institution-specific credit weaknesses, with $261 million in assets and an estimated $19.7 million hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund. This isolated event, driven by regulatory intervention rather than systemic pressures, satisfies the market's resolution criteria well ahead of the deadline, locking in near-certain Yes odds backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks remain negligible, though improbable challenges to the failure's classification under FDIC standards could theoretically arise before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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