Recent firings of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have accelerated a cabinet shakeup ahead of the 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward high implied probabilities for further departures in the multi-outcome market. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads at 77%, fueled by active White House discussions alongside FBI Director Kash Patel (67%) and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, per reporting from early April. Top-level turnover hit 32% as of mid-April, slower than Trump's first term but echoing patterns of loyalty-driven changes and policy recalibrations. November midterms loom as a potential catalyst for more exits or replacements via Senate confirmations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$972,325 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
79%
Kash Patel
59%
Kristi Noem
55%
Tulsi Gabbard
53%
Howard Lutnick
49%
Karoline Leavitt
48%
Pete Hegseth
47%
Lee Zeldin
40%
David Sacks
36%
Susie Wiles
35%
John Ratcliffe
29%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
29%
Tom Homan
24%
Stephen Miller
20%
Scott Bessent
18%
Marco Rubio
16%
Russell Vought
26%
Dan Scavino
34%
$972,325 Vol.
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$4,193 Vol.
79%
Kash Patel
$195,173 Vol.
59%
Kristi Noem
$86,800 Vol.
55%
Tulsi Gabbard
$46,520 Vol.
53%
Howard Lutnick
$57,523 Vol.
49%
Karoline Leavitt
$15,990 Vol.
48%
Pete Hegseth
$52,255 Vol.
47%
Lee Zeldin
$26,454 Vol.
40%
David Sacks
$6,994 Vol.
36%
Susie Wiles
$41,307 Vol.
35%
John Ratcliffe
$0 Vol.
29%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$63,631 Vol.
29%
Tom Homan
$58 Vol.
24%
Stephen Miller
$810 Vol.
20%
Scott Bessent
$853 Vol.
18%
Marco Rubio
$3,134 Vol.
16%
Russell Vought
$134 Vol.
26%
Dan Scavino
$31 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent firings of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have accelerated a cabinet shakeup ahead of the 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward high implied probabilities for further departures in the multi-outcome market. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads at 77%, fueled by active White House discussions alongside FBI Director Kash Patel (67%) and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, per reporting from early April. Top-level turnover hit 32% as of mid-April, slower than Trump's first term but echoing patterns of loyalty-driven changes and policy recalibrations. November midterms loom as a potential catalyst for more exits or replacements via Senate confirmations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$972,325Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent firings of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have accelerated a cabinet shakeup ahead of the 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward high implied probabilities for further departures in the multi-outcome market. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads at 77%, fueled by active White House discussions alongside FBI Director Kash Patel (67%) and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, per reporting from early April. Top-level turnover hit 32% as of mid-April, slower than Trump's first term but echoing patterns of loyalty-driven changes and policy recalibrations. November midterms loom as a potential catalyst for more exits or replacements via Senate confirmations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$972,325Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent firings of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have accelerated a cabinet shakeup ahead of the 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward high implied probabilities for further departures in the multi-outcome market. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads at 77%, fueled by active White House discussions alongside FBI Director Kash Patel (67%) and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, per reporting from early April. Top-level turnover hit 32% as of mid-April, slower than Trump's first term but echoing patterns of loyalty-driven changes and policy recalibrations. November midterms loom as a potential catalyst for more exits or replacements via Senate confirmations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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