Argentina’s planned citizenship-by-investment or “golden passport” program remains stalled in the development phase without a confirmed launch, investment thresholds, or approval timelines as of mid-September 2026, anchoring trader consensus on the No outcome at 88.5 percent implied probability. Peter Thiel, the Palantir co-founder, has temporarily relocated his family to Buenos Aires, purchased property, met repeatedly with President Javier Milei, and acquired a stake in an Argentine energy firm, yet official government statements have denied any expedited offer or formal application. Bureaucratic and legislative hurdles, combined with the absence of demonstrated residency requirements, make completion before the December 31 deadline improbable. A last-minute executive decree could still alter the trajectory, though current verified developments point to continued delays.