Trader consensus on the low likelihood of Trump facing impeachment by the end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained Republican majorities in the House, where any articles of impeachment must originate. Historical patterns show intra-party impeachments remain rare absent broad bipartisan backing or acute crises. The November 2026 midterms introduce some uncertainty, yet even a potential Democratic House flip would still require Senate conviction by a two-thirds supermajority. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include major legislative realignments after the midterms combined with unforeseen developments such as significant scandals, though constitutional thresholds and party dynamics continue to constrain rapid action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
$1,020,451 Vol.
$1,020,451 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Guadagna il 3.25%
Sì
2% probabilità
$1,020,451 Vol.
$1,020,451 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Guadagna il 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of Trump facing impeachment by the end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained Republican majorities in the House, where any articles of impeachment must originate. Historical patterns show intra-party impeachments remain rare absent broad bipartisan backing or acute crises. The November 2026 midterms introduce some uncertainty, yet even a potential Democratic House flip would still require Senate conviction by a two-thirds supermajority. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include major legislative realignments after the midterms combined with unforeseen developments such as significant scandals, though constitutional thresholds and party dynamics continue to constrain rapid action.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,020,451Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETRisolutore
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of Trump facing impeachment by the end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained Republican majorities in the House, where any articles of impeachment must originate. Historical patterns show intra-party impeachments remain rare absent broad bipartisan backing or acute crises. The November 2026 midterms introduce some uncertainty, yet even a potential Democratic House flip would still require Senate conviction by a two-thirds supermajority. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include major legislative realignments after the midterms combined with unforeseen developments such as significant scandals, though constitutional thresholds and party dynamics continue to constrain rapid action.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$1,020,451Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETRisolutore
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus on the low likelihood of Trump facing impeachment by the end of 2026 stems primarily from sustained Republican majorities in the House, where any articles of impeachment must originate. Historical patterns show intra-party impeachments remain rare absent broad bipartisan backing or acute crises. The November 2026 midterms introduce some uncertainty, yet even a potential Democratic House flip would still require Senate conviction by a two-thirds supermajority. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include major legislative realignments after the midterms combined with unforeseen developments such as significant scandals, though constitutional thresholds and party dynamics continue to constrain rapid action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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