The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader expectations for additional tightening this year. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one further quarter-point increase by year-end, driven by resilient domestic demand, solid GDP growth forecasts around 2.3 percent, and still-elevated inflation, with August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core measures above target. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and a labor market holding near 4.1 percent unemployment have reinforced the hawkish stance under Chair Warsh. Markets now price the next likely move at the December FOMC meeting, consistent with the 81 percent implied probability for another hike before 2027.