The Fed’s September 16, 2026, unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00 percent target range, paired with a revised Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end federal funds rate of 4.1 percent, underpins the 85 percent market-implied odds of at least one additional increase before December. Sixteen of 18 policymakers now project further tightening this year, driven by September-updated forecasts for 3.7 percent PCE inflation and a resilient labor market with 4.1 percent unemployment. Traders are pricing in the December meeting as the most likely catalyst, while October’s post-election timing introduces modest uncertainty. This pricing reflects aggregated capital at risk assessing that current policy remains insufficient to return inflation sustainably to 2 percent.