Apple’s spatial computing roadmap has shifted sharply away from a near-term Vision Pro successor, driving the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company placed the category “on ice,” canceled the lighter Vision Air variant, and reassigned engineers to smart glasses targeting late 2027. The existing M5-updated Vision Pro from October 2025 remains the only hardware, with any true next-generation headset now slated for late 2028 or 2029 due to persistent challenges in reducing weight and cost. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if component advances or competitive pressure intervene, the consistent supply-chain signals and resource reallocation make a 2026 launch highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s spatial computing roadmap has shifted sharply away from a near-term Vision Pro successor, driving the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company placed the category “on ice,” canceled the lighter Vision Air variant, and reassigned engineers to smart glasses targeting late 2027. The existing M5-updated Vision Pro from October 2025 remains the only hardware, with any true next-generation headset now slated for late 2028 or 2029 due to persistent challenges in reducing weight and cost. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if component advances or competitive pressure intervene, the consistent supply-chain signals and resource reallocation make a 2026 launch highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,272終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s spatial computing roadmap has shifted sharply away from a near-term Vision Pro successor, driving the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company placed the category “on ice,” canceled the lighter Vision Air variant, and reassigned engineers to smart glasses targeting late 2027. The existing M5-updated Vision Pro from October 2025 remains the only hardware, with any true next-generation headset now slated for late 2028 or 2029 due to persistent challenges in reducing weight and cost. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if component advances or competitive pressure intervene, the consistent supply-chain signals and resource reallocation make a 2026 launch highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,272終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s spatial computing roadmap has shifted sharply away from a near-term Vision Pro successor, driving the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company placed the category “on ice,” canceled the lighter Vision Air variant, and reassigned engineers to smart glasses targeting late 2027. The existing M5-updated Vision Pro from October 2025 remains the only hardware, with any true next-generation headset now slated for late 2028 or 2029 due to persistent challenges in reducing weight and cost. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if component advances or competitive pressure intervene, the consistent supply-chain signals and resource reallocation make a 2026 launch highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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