Traders assign a 99.4% probability to Bill Gates avoiding formal charges by June 30 because no active criminal investigations or indictments targeting him have surfaced in credible reporting, and recent congressional scrutiny of his past Epstein ties produced no accusations of wrongdoing. Lawmakers conducting the June 2026 closed-door House Oversight Committee session explicitly noted the absence of allegations against Gates, consistent with long-standing patterns where prior social media claims of arrests or prosecutions proved unfounded. With only days remaining, the compressed timeline further reduces any realistic prospect of sudden prosecutorial action absent extraordinary new evidence from authorities. Late developments such as an unexpected DOJ filing or sealed indictment unsealing could theoretically shift odds, though none appear imminent based on available facts.