Federal investigations into potential obstruction of immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota, including grand jury subpoenas served to Governor Tim Walz and other officials in January 2026, have sustained congressional scrutiny through House Oversight Committee hearings. Separate probes into large-scale COVID-era welfare fraud scandals have produced numerous indictments of state program participants but no charges against Walz himself. His January announcement declining a third term has not shifted the low implied probability of formal charges by the market’s late-2026 resolution date, reflecting the high evidentiary thresholds for prosecuting sitting or former governors and the absence of new developments in recent months.