Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding consensus forecasts around 4%, driven primarily by a 21.5% spike in transportation equipment. This lumpy volatility, typical of the series, has prompted traders to price in a likely reversal or moderation for the May release scheduled June 25, with market-implied odds assigning over 56% probability to declines exceeding 2%. Broader manufacturing indicators, including capital goods excluding aircraft and unfilled orders trends, add to the uncertainty, while the wide distribution across outcome buckets underscores limited consensus ahead of the data. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential mean reversion rather than sustained momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<-4% 33.4%
-4%～-2% 23%
0％～2％ 11%
-2％～0％ 10.2%
$42,326 Vol.
$42,326 Vol.
2026/06/25
<-4%
33%
-4%～-2%
23%
-2％～0％
10%
0％～2％
11%
2％～4％
10%
4％～6％
7%
6％～8％
1%
8％以上
1%
<-4% 33.4%
-4%～-2% 23%
0％～2％ 11%
-2％～0％ 10.2%
$42,326 Vol.
$42,326 Vol.
2026/06/25
<-4%
$2,790 Vol.
33%
-4%～-2%
$4,200 Vol.
23%
-2％～0％
$1,494 Vol.
10%
0％～2％
$7,163 Vol.
11%
2％～4％
$13,987 Vol.
10%
4％～6％
$7,957 Vol.
7%
6％～8％
$2,820 Vol.
1%
8％以上
$1,915 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding consensus forecasts around 4%, driven primarily by a 21.5% spike in transportation equipment. This lumpy volatility, typical of the series, has prompted traders to price in a likely reversal or moderation for the May release scheduled June 25, with market-implied odds assigning over 56% probability to declines exceeding 2%. Broader manufacturing indicators, including capital goods excluding aircraft and unfilled orders trends, add to the uncertainty, while the wide distribution across outcome buckets underscores limited consensus ahead of the data. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential mean reversion rather than sustained momentum.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
マーケット開始日： Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$42,326終了日
2026/06/25マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding consensus forecasts around 4%, driven primarily by a 21.5% spike in transportation equipment. This lumpy volatility, typical of the series, has prompted traders to price in a likely reversal or moderation for the May release scheduled June 25, with market-implied odds assigning over 56% probability to declines exceeding 2%. Broader manufacturing indicators, including capital goods excluding aircraft and unfilled orders trends, add to the uncertainty, while the wide distribution across outcome buckets underscores limited consensus ahead of the data. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential mean reversion rather than sustained momentum.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
音量
$42,326終了日
2026/06/25マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month, far exceeding consensus forecasts around 4%, driven primarily by a 21.5% spike in transportation equipment. This lumpy volatility, typical of the series, has prompted traders to price in a likely reversal or moderation for the May release scheduled June 25, with market-implied odds assigning over 56% probability to declines exceeding 2%. Broader manufacturing indicators, including capital goods excluding aircraft and unfilled orders trends, add to the uncertainty, while the wide distribution across outcome buckets underscores limited consensus ahead of the data. Trader positioning reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of potential mean reversion rather than sustained momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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