Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 65-89 posts (36.5% implied probability) over April 6-8, closely trailed by 40-64 (28.5%), reflecting Elon Musk's recent variable X posting pace averaging 25-35 daily amid spikes like 103 on April 3 but moderation to 22 on April 2 and a steady dozen-plus by midday April 5. This competitive split stems from uncertainty in his social media engagement, which surges on viral political commentary, xAI developments, or X platform updates—as seen in today's API upgrade promotions—but tempers during quieter periods. Key swing factors include potential Tesla/SpaceX announcements or cultural flashpoints over these weekdays, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from breaking news driving higher-volume threads. Markets remain fluid ahead of tomorrow's kickoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日65~89 37%
40〜64 29%
90〜114 23%
115〜139 11%
$96,882 Vol.
$96,882 Vol.
40未満
3%
40〜64
29%
65~89
37%
90〜114
23%
115〜139
11%
140~164
2%
165〜189
1%
190〜214
<1%
215〜239
<1%
240以上
<1%
65~89 37%
40〜64 29%
90〜114 23%
115〜139 11%
$96,882 Vol.
$96,882 Vol.
40未満
3%
40〜64
29%
65~89
37%
90〜114
23%
115〜139
11%
140~164
2%
165〜189
1%
190〜214
<1%
215〜239
<1%
240以上
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Apr 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 65-89 posts (36.5% implied probability) over April 6-8, closely trailed by 40-64 (28.5%), reflecting Elon Musk's recent variable X posting pace averaging 25-35 daily amid spikes like 103 on April 3 but moderation to 22 on April 2 and a steady dozen-plus by midday April 5. This competitive split stems from uncertainty in his social media engagement, which surges on viral political commentary, xAI developments, or X platform updates—as seen in today's API upgrade promotions—but tempers during quieter periods. Key swing factors include potential Tesla/SpaceX announcements or cultural flashpoints over these weekdays, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from breaking news driving higher-volume threads. Markets remain fluid ahead of tomorrow's kickoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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