Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk from April 7-14, with 260-279, 280-299, and 300-319 each at 12.5% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting cadence of 35-42 posts daily seen throughout March 2026, where monthly totals hit 1320-1359 amid consistent weekly resolutions in the 200-350 range. This tight race among leading bins stems from Elon's variable engagement—spiking during Tesla updates, SpaceX launches, or political discourse—balanced against occasional lulls from travel or company focus, with no major disruptions in the past week to shift expectations. Key swing factors include potential viral controversies or announcements next week, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in capturing his unpredictable social media rhythm as X's most active cultural force.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日260〜279 13%
280～299 13%
300〜319 13%
240～259 12%
$189,361 Vol.
$189,361 Vol.
20未満
<1%
20〜39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60〜79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100〜119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160〜179
1%
180～199
1%
200〜219
4%
220～239
8%
240～259
12%
260〜279
13%
280～299
13%
300〜319
13%
320～339
11%
340〜359
9%
360〜379
8%
380〜399
8%
400～419
5%
420〜439
3%
440〜459
2%
460〜479
1%
480〜499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520～539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560〜579
<1%
580以上
<1%
260〜279 13%
280～299 13%
300〜319 13%
240～259 12%
$189,361 Vol.
$189,361 Vol.
20未満
<1%
20〜39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60〜79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100〜119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160〜179
1%
180～199
1%
200〜219
4%
220～239
8%
240～259
12%
260〜279
13%
280～299
13%
300〜319
13%
320～339
11%
340〜359
9%
360〜379
8%
380〜399
8%
400～419
5%
420〜439
3%
440〜459
2%
460〜479
1%
480〜499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520～539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560〜579
<1%
580以上
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 4, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk from April 7-14, with 260-279, 280-299, and 300-319 each at 12.5% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting cadence of 35-42 posts daily seen throughout March 2026, where monthly totals hit 1320-1359 amid consistent weekly resolutions in the 200-350 range. This tight race among leading bins stems from Elon's variable engagement—spiking during Tesla updates, SpaceX launches, or political discourse—balanced against occasional lulls from travel or company focus, with no major disruptions in the past week to shift expectations. Key swing factors include potential viral controversies or announcements next week, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in capturing his unpredictable social media rhythm as X's most active cultural force.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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