Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 2 to April 4, reflecting his recent March total of 1320-1359 posts—averaging roughly 43 per day—but anticipating moderation amid a typical weekday-to-weekend mix including Saturday. The 28.5% odds on 40-64 underscore caution after steady but non-frenetic late-March activity, like FSD 14.3 beta rollout teases and SpaceX heat shield updates on April 1, without major controversies driving viral spikes. Higher ranges like 90-114 at 22.5% hinge on potential Tesla or xAI announcements, while sub-40 at 3.4% accounts for rare quiet periods; watch for real-time engagement shifts as conditions evolve rapidly in Musk's high-profile social media presence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日65～89 39%
40〜64 29%
90～114 23%
115～139 7%
新規
$115,599 Vol.
新規
$115,599 Vol.
2026/04/04
40未満
3%
40〜64
29%
65～89
39%
90～114
23%
115～139
7%
140〜164
1%
165～189
1%
190～214
<1%
215～239
<1%
240以上
<1%
65～89 39%
40〜64 29%
90～114 23%
115～139 7%
新規
$115,599 Vol.
新規
$115,599 Vol.
2026/04/04
40未満
$12,331 Vol.
3%
40〜64
$5,974 Vol.
29%
65～89
$6,762 Vol.
39%
90～114
$5,468 Vol.
23%
115～139
$9,140 Vol.
7%
140〜164
$14,513 Vol.
1%
165～189
$12,473 Vol.
1%
190～214
$11,047 Vol.
<1%
215～239
$18,532 Vol.
<1%
240以上
$19,515 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 2 to April 4, reflecting his recent March total of 1320-1359 posts—averaging roughly 43 per day—but anticipating moderation amid a typical weekday-to-weekend mix including Saturday. The 28.5% odds on 40-64 underscore caution after steady but non-frenetic late-March activity, like FSD 14.3 beta rollout teases and SpaceX heat shield updates on April 1, without major controversies driving viral spikes. Higher ranges like 90-114 at 22.5% hinge on potential Tesla or xAI announcements, while sub-40 at 3.4% accounts for rare quiet periods; watch for real-time engagement shifts as conditions evolve rapidly in Musk's high-profile social media presence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Mar 30, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
音量
$115,599終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 2 to April 4, reflecting his recent March total of 1320-1359 posts—averaging roughly 43 per day—but anticipating moderation amid a typical weekday-to-weekend mix including Saturday. The 28.5% odds on 40-64 underscore caution after steady but non-frenetic late-March activity, like FSD 14.3 beta rollout teases and SpaceX heat shield updates on April 1, without major controversies driving viral spikes. Higher ranges like 90-114 at 22.5% hinge on potential Tesla or xAI announcements, while sub-40 at 3.4% accounts for rare quiet periods; watch for real-time engagement shifts as conditions evolve rapidly in Musk's high-profile social media presence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$115,599終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 30, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 2 to April 4, reflecting his recent March total of 1320-1359 posts—averaging roughly 43 per day—but anticipating moderation amid a typical weekday-to-weekend mix including Saturday. The 28.5% odds on 40-64 underscore caution after steady but non-frenetic late-March activity, like FSD 14.3 beta rollout teases and SpaceX heat shield updates on April 1, without major controversies driving viral spikes. Higher ranges like 90-114 at 22.5% hinge on potential Tesla or xAI announcements, while sub-40 at 3.4% accounts for rare quiet periods; watch for real-time engagement shifts as conditions evolve rapidly in Musk's high-profile social media presence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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