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政治·ツイートマーケット

ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？

Market icon
政治·ツイートマーケット

ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 7

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 7

＜5 40%

10〜14 38%

5～9 37%

15〜19 34%

Polymarket
NEW

＜5 40%

10〜14 38%

5～9 37%

15〜19 34%

Polymarket
NEW

＜5

$20 Vol.

40%

5～9

$0 Vol.

37%

10〜14

$0 Vol.

38%

15〜19

$0 Vol.

34%

20～24

$0 Vol.

34%

25〜29

$0 Vol.

32%

30〜34

$0 Vol.

31%

35〜39

$20 Vol.

26%

40〜44

$20 Vol.

27%

45～49

$20 Vol.

26%

50〜54

$20 Vol.

26%

55～59

$20 Vol.

26%

60件以上

$21 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 31, 12:00 PM ET and April 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for March 31–April 7 reflects sparse activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom in a February Israeli airstrike, with the prior week (March 20–27) seeing just four archival statements on Resistance forces, Hezbollah, and U.S. decline. Under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who issued a Nowruz message March 20 amid conflicting health reports—the account maintains a 3–5 posts per week base rate, yielding tight odds between <5 and 5–9 as traders weigh steady propaganda amid Iran-Israel escalations like March 24 cluster munitions strikes. A surge in regional military actions or leadership statements could boost toward 10–14, while prolonged silence risks dropping below 5.

Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for March 31–April 7 reflects sparse activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom in a February Israeli airstrike, with the prior week (March 20–27) seeing just four archival statements on Resistance forces, Hezbollah, and U.S. decline. Under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who issued a Nowruz message March 20 amid conflicting health reports—the account maintains a 3–5 posts per week base rate, yielding tight odds between <5 and 5–9 as traders weigh steady propaganda amid Iran-Israel escalations like March 24 cluster munitions strikes. A surge in regional military actions or leadership statements could boost toward 10–14, while prolonged silence risks dropping below 5.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 31, 12:00 PM ET and April 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for March 31–April 7 reflects sparse activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom in a February Israeli airstrike, with the prior week (March 20–27) seeing just four archival statements on Resistance forces, Hezbollah, and U.S. decline. Under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who issued a Nowruz message March 20 amid conflicting health reports—the account maintains a 3–5 posts per week base rate, yielding tight odds between <5 and 5–9 as traders weigh steady propaganda amid Iran-Israel escalations like March 24 cluster munitions strikes. A surge in regional military actions or leadership statements could boost toward 10–14, while prolonged silence risks dropping below 5.

Trader consensus on the @khamenei_ir account's post count for March 31–April 7 reflects sparse activity since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom in a February Israeli airstrike, with the prior week (March 20–27) seeing just four archival statements on Resistance forces, Hezbollah, and U.S. decline. Under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—who issued a Nowruz message March 20 amid conflicting health reports—the account maintains a 3–5 posts per week base rate, yielding tight odds between <5 and 5–9 as traders weigh steady propaganda amid Iran-Israel escalations like March 24 cluster munitions strikes. A surge in regional military actions or leadership statements could boost toward 10–14, while prolonged silence risks dropping below 5.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？」はPolymarket上の13個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「＜5」で40%、次いで「10〜14」が39%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、40¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に40%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 28, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている13個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？」の現在のフロントランナーは「＜5」で40%であり、市場がこの結果に40%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「10〜14」で39%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ハメネイ# posts 2026年3月31日～ 4月7日？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。