Ensemble forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and a passing trough moderating insolation over the Sichuan Basin on August 18, keeping daytime maxima near 24–26°C rather than seasonal norms of 30–32°C. High humidity and evaporative cooling from rainfall further suppress peaks, with minor model spread in timing and intensity creating tight probabilities around 24°C and 25°C. Historical August analogs show similar patterns when subtropical highs weaken, though rapid shifts in steering flow could push outcomes higher if clearer conditions develop.