Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate a high near 32–33°C on August 16 amid thundery showers and 70–90% rain probability, which explains the tight market split between those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation from a southwesterly airstream limit daytime heating and surface insolation, while high humidity near 80% further moderates maximum temperatures through evaporative cooling. Recent extremely hot conditions tied to Tropical Cyclone Dolphin have given way to this more typical August pattern of scattered convection, reducing the chance of exceeding 34°C. Traders weigh the latest multi-model consensus and timing of any rain bands against historical August maxima around 31–32°C when assessing whether isolated breaks in cloud could push the official reading to 33°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月16日の香港の最高気温は?
33°C 37%
32°C 33%
31°C 14%
34°C 12%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
14%
32°C
33%
33°C
37%
34°C
12%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
32°C 33%
31°C 14%
34°C 12%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
14%
32°C
33%
33°C
37%
34°C
12%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate a high near 32–33°C on August 16 amid thundery showers and 70–90% rain probability, which explains the tight market split between those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation from a southwesterly airstream limit daytime heating and surface insolation, while high humidity near 80% further moderates maximum temperatures through evaporative cooling. Recent extremely hot conditions tied to Tropical Cyclone Dolphin have given way to this more typical August pattern of scattered convection, reducing the chance of exceeding 34°C. Traders weigh the latest multi-model consensus and timing of any rain bands against historical August maxima around 31–32°C when assessing whether isolated breaks in cloud could push the official reading to 33°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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