The market's 100% implied probability on a 27°C high for Chengdu on September 9 stems from the latest official forecasts and observational data indicating peak daytime readings at that level under widespread cloud cover and showers. Persistent northeasterly flow and high humidity in the Sichuan basin have limited solar heating, aligning with typical September climatology where basin temperatures often peak near 25–28°C before seasonal cooling sets in. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration supports this outcome, though minor variations in station microclimates or post-event data revisions could theoretically alter the recorded maximum if they push readings below or above the threshold. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates these factors into the current consensus ahead of final resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月9日の成都の最高気温は？
9月9日の成都の最高気温は？
27℃ 100.0%
21℃以下 <1%
22℃ <1%
23℃ <1%
$122,624 Vol.
$122,624 Vol.
2026/09/09
21℃以下
<1%
22℃
<1%
23℃
<1%
24℃
<1%
25°C
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃
100%
28℃
<1%
29℃
<1%
30°C
<1%
31℃以上
<1%
27℃ 100.0%
21℃以下 <1%
22℃ <1%
23℃ <1%
$122,624 Vol.
$122,624 Vol.
2026/09/09
21℃以下
$9,889 Vol.
<1%
22℃
$10,388 Vol.
<1%
23℃
$5,209 Vol.
<1%
24℃
$10,598 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$18,207 Vol.
<1%
26℃
$27,586 Vol.
<1%
27℃
$22,618 Vol.
100%
28℃
$8,995 Vol.
<1%
29℃
$5,990 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,112 Vol.
<1%
31℃以上
$1,032 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's 100% implied probability on a 27°C high for Chengdu on September 9 stems from the latest official forecasts and observational data indicating peak daytime readings at that level under widespread cloud cover and showers. Persistent northeasterly flow and high humidity in the Sichuan basin have limited solar heating, aligning with typical September climatology where basin temperatures often peak near 25–28°C before seasonal cooling sets in. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration supports this outcome, though minor variations in station microclimates or post-event data revisions could theoretically alter the recorded maximum if they push readings below or above the threshold. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates these factors into the current consensus ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 7, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
音量
$122,624終了日
2026/09/09マーケット開始日
Sep 7, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's 100% implied probability on a 27°C high for Chengdu on September 9 stems from the latest official forecasts and observational data indicating peak daytime readings at that level under widespread cloud cover and showers. Persistent northeasterly flow and high humidity in the Sichuan basin have limited solar heating, aligning with typical September climatology where basin temperatures often peak near 25–28°C before seasonal cooling sets in. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration supports this outcome, though minor variations in station microclimates or post-event data revisions could theoretically alter the recorded maximum if they push readings below or above the threshold. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates these factors into the current consensus ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$122,624終了日
2026/09/09マーケット開始日
Sep 7, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThe market's 100% implied probability on a 27°C high for Chengdu on September 9 stems from the latest official forecasts and observational data indicating peak daytime readings at that level under widespread cloud cover and showers. Persistent northeasterly flow and high humidity in the Sichuan basin have limited solar heating, aligning with typical September climatology where basin temperatures often peak near 25–28°C before seasonal cooling sets in. Model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration supports this outcome, though minor variations in station microclimates or post-event data revisions could theoretically alter the recorded maximum if they push readings below or above the threshold. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessment incorporates these factors into the current consensus ahead of final resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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