Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4月15日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
4月15日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
12℃ 100.0%
10°C以下 <1%
11℃ <1%
13℃ <1%
$120,752 Vol.
$120,752 Vol.
2026/04/15
10°C以下
いいえ
11℃
いいえ
12℃
はい
13℃
いいえ
14°C
いいえ
15℃
いいえ
16℃
いいえ
17°C
いいえ
18℃
いいえ
19°C
いいえ
20℃以上
いいえ
12℃ 100.0%
10°C以下 <1%
11℃ <1%
13℃ <1%
$120,752 Vol.
$120,752 Vol.
2026/04/15
10°C以下
$4,994 Vol.
いいえ
11℃
$7,284 Vol.
いいえ
12℃
$12,585 Vol.
はい
13℃
$4,752 Vol.
いいえ
14°C
$3,924 Vol.
いいえ
15℃
$10,982 Vol.
いいえ
16℃
$33,383 Vol.
いいえ
17°C
$26,373 Vol.
いいえ
18℃
$12,612 Vol.
いいえ
19°C
$905 Vol.
いいえ
20℃以上
$2,958 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
音量
$120,752終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$120,752終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Istanbul's highest temperature on April 15, 2026, reached exactly 12°C at primary stations, driving the market-implied 100% consensus on this outcome and rendering 20°C or higher impossible. This aligns with MGM's prior weekly forecast of temperatures falling 2–4°C below seasonal norms (typically 15–16°C highs) due to a low-pressure system ushering cooler continental air and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Pre-event ECMWF model ensembles had hinted at low-teens maxima, but verified measurements solidified trader positioning. Scenarios challenging this would require unprecedented data revisions from MGM reanalysis, though post-validation protocols make such shifts negligible.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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