Trader sentiment favors a 13°C high temperature in London on March 22 at 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 14°C at 27.5%, reflecting the latest Met Office forecast projecting a maximum around 13°C under variable cloud cover and light southerly winds. Ensemble models from ECMWF and UKMO indicate a mean peak of 12.5–13.5°C, with 14°C requiring sustained clearer skies or stronger warm advection from the Atlantic, currently less favored amid a weak high-pressure ridge. Historical late-March averages hover at 12°C, but recent model runs show slight warming from geopotential height anomalies, heightening uncertainty as short-range updates could shift odds before resolution based on Heathrow observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月22日のロンドンの最高気温は?
3月22日のロンドンの最高気温は?
13°C 36%
14℃ 28%
15°C 15%
12℃ 13.2%
$39,902 Vol.
$39,902 Vol.
7°C以下
<1%
8℃
<1%
9℃
1%
10℃
2%
11°C
8%
12℃
13%
13°C
36%
14℃
28%
15°C
15%
16℃
2%
17°C以上
1%
13°C 36%
14℃ 28%
15°C 15%
12℃ 13.2%
$39,902 Vol.
$39,902 Vol.
7°C以下
<1%
8℃
<1%
9℃
1%
10℃
2%
11°C
8%
12℃
13%
13°C
36%
14℃
28%
15°C
15%
16℃
2%
17°C以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors a 13°C high temperature in London on March 22 at 36% implied probability, closely trailed by 14°C at 27.5%, reflecting the latest Met Office forecast projecting a maximum around 13°C under variable cloud cover and light southerly winds. Ensemble models from ECMWF and UKMO indicate a mean peak of 12.5–13.5°C, with 14°C requiring sustained clearer skies or stronger warm advection from the Atlantic, currently less favored amid a weak high-pressure ridge. Historical late-March averages hover at 12°C, but recent model runs show slight warming from geopotential height anomalies, heightening uncertainty as short-range updates could shift odds before resolution based on Heathrow observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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