Trader sentiment on London's highest temperature on March 23 heavily favors 13°C at 33% implied probability, edging out 14°C at 29.5%, driven by the UK Met Office's latest forecast capping the maximum at 13°C amid persistent cloud cover and windy conditions with heavy rain outbreaks. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converge on 12-14°C, reflecting a weakening high-pressure ridge that limits solar heating compared to sunnier historical March averages around 12°C. The razor-thin split stems from minor discrepancies in cloud-break timing and boundary-layer mixing, with traders awaiting evening model updates that could tip odds further; sub-12°C outcomes remain marginal given mild Atlantic airflows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月23日のロンドンの最高気温は?
3月23日のロンドンの最高気温は?
13°C 34%
14°C 30%
15°C 16%
12°C 12%
9℃以下
1%
10℃
1%
11°C
5%
12°C
12%
13°C
34%
14°C
30%
15°C
16%
16°C
7%
17℃
1%
18°C
2%
19°C以上
1%
13°C 34%
14°C 30%
15°C 16%
12°C 12%
9℃以下
1%
10℃
1%
11°C
5%
12°C
12%
13°C
34%
14°C
30%
15°C
16%
16°C
7%
17℃
1%
18°C
2%
19°C以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on London's highest temperature on March 23 heavily favors 13°C at 33% implied probability, edging out 14°C at 29.5%, driven by the UK Met Office's latest forecast capping the maximum at 13°C amid persistent cloud cover and windy conditions with heavy rain outbreaks. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converge on 12-14°C, reflecting a weakening high-pressure ridge that limits solar heating compared to sunnier historical March averages around 12°C. The razor-thin split stems from minor discrepancies in cloud-break timing and boundary-layer mixing, with traders awaiting evening model updates that could tip odds further; sub-12°C outcomes remain marginal given mild Atlantic airflows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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