Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a marine layer and onshore flow moderating temperatures in coastal Los Angeles, keeping the August 20 high most likely in the 78–81°F range that dominates market-implied odds. Typical late-summer climatology supports afternoon maxima near 80–84°F at official stations, with any inland heat advection limited by the persistent Pacific high-pressure pattern. Updated runs show minimal warming signals through the 20th, aligning with the 44% probability on 80–81°F and 29.5% on 78–79°F. Forecasters expect little change before tomorrow’s observation window closes, though minor model spread around boundary-layer mixing could still shift the final reading within the leading bins.