The market-implied probabilities center on a 29–31°C daily maximum for Manila on August 13, reflecting the influence of the southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently affecting Luzon. PAGASA forecasts show a 26–32°C range with 60–100% rain chances, consistent with monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating compared to clearer periods. Long-term climatology places mid-August Manila highs near 31°C, but active monsoon conditions in the past week have kept recent maxima closer to 30°C or below. Model consensus and the short two-day lead time reinforce trader focus on this narrow band, as additional rainfall or clearer breaks could shift the peak by 1–2°C before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月13日のマニラの最高気温は?
30°C 41%
31°C 26%
29℃ 25%
28°C 5%
25°C以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29℃
25%
30°C
41%
31°C
26%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35℃以上
<1%
30°C 41%
31°C 26%
29℃ 25%
28°C 5%
25°C以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29℃
25%
30°C
41%
31°C
26%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35℃以上
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The market-implied probabilities center on a 29–31°C daily maximum for Manila on August 13, reflecting the influence of the southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently affecting Luzon. PAGASA forecasts show a 26–32°C range with 60–100% rain chances, consistent with monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating compared to clearer periods. Long-term climatology places mid-August Manila highs near 31°C, but active monsoon conditions in the past week have kept recent maxima closer to 30°C or below. Model consensus and the short two-day lead time reinforce trader focus on this narrow band, as additional rainfall or clearer breaks could shift the peak by 1–2°C before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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