Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather, timeanddate, and weather25.com indicate Madrid highs of 36–37°C on August 10–11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover that favors strong daytime solar heating. This aligns closely with the market's leading implied probabilities for 37°C (55.5%) and 38°C (34.0%), reflecting trader consensus around model outputs showing peak temperatures in that narrow range. August climatology for central Spain typically features average highs near 32–33°C with low precipitation, but the current pattern—dry air masses and light winds—supports modest intensification above seasonal norms without reaching extreme heatwave thresholds above 40°C. Short-range model updates through the next 48 hours will likely refine these values, as small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月11日のマドリードの最高気温は?
37°C 56%
38°C 35%
36°C 9%
39°C 5%
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
9%
37°C
56%
38°C
35%
39°C
5%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
1%
37°C 56%
38°C 35%
36°C 9%
39°C 5%
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
9%
37°C
56%
38°C
35%
39°C
5%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather, timeanddate, and weather25.com indicate Madrid highs of 36–37°C on August 10–11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover that favors strong daytime solar heating. This aligns closely with the market's leading implied probabilities for 37°C (55.5%) and 38°C (34.0%), reflecting trader consensus around model outputs showing peak temperatures in that narrow range. August climatology for central Spain typically features average highs near 32–33°C with low precipitation, but the current pattern—dry air masses and light winds—supports modest intensification above seasonal norms without reaching extreme heatwave thresholds above 40°C. Short-range model updates through the next 48 hours will likely refine these values, as small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問