**Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a daily maximum temperature most likely between 34–36 °C on August 11, 2026, with trader probabilities tightly clustered around 35 °C (31.5 %) and 36 °C (31.0 %).** This reflects the typical late-summer pattern in the Pearl River Delta, where high solar insolation under subtropical high pressure is frequently modulated by afternoon convective thunderstorms driven by monsoon moisture and sea-breeze convergence. Recent model runs show modest spread in the timing and coverage of these storms; earlier or more widespread rain would cap the peak near 34 °C, while delayed or localized convection allows surface temperatures to reach 36 °C before cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, but 2026 conditions have trended slightly warmer, consistent with the market’s elevated odds above 34 °C. Key near-term updates will come from the China Meteorological Administration’s daily guidance and updated global model outputs (GFS/ECMWF) within the next 24–48 hours, which traders are monitoring for shifts in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that determine whether the highest reading settles at 35 °C or edges into 36 °C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月11日の深センの最高気温は？
8月11日の深センの最高気温は？
35°C 34%
36°C 31%
34°C 18%
37°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/11
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
7%
34°C
18%
35°C
34%
36°C
31%
37°C
13%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 34%
36°C 31%
34°C 18%
37°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/11
29°C or below
$313 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$79 Vol.
1%
31°C
$22 Vol.
1%
32°C
$63 Vol.
2%
33°C
$20 Vol.
7%
34°C
$76 Vol.
18%
35°C
$71 Vol.
34%
36°C
$139 Vol.
31%
37°C
$26 Vol.
13%
38°C
$214 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$558 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a daily maximum temperature most likely between 34–36 °C on August 11, 2026, with trader probabilities tightly clustered around 35 °C (31.5 %) and 36 °C (31.0 %).** This reflects the typical late-summer pattern in the Pearl River Delta, where high solar insolation under subtropical high pressure is frequently modulated by afternoon convective thunderstorms driven by monsoon moisture and sea-breeze convergence. Recent model runs show modest spread in the timing and coverage of these storms; earlier or more widespread rain would cap the peak near 34 °C, while delayed or localized convection allows surface temperatures to reach 36 °C before cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, but 2026 conditions have trended slightly warmer, consistent with the market’s elevated odds above 34 °C. Key near-term updates will come from the China Meteorological Administration’s daily guidance and updated global model outputs (GFS/ECMWF) within the next 24–48 hours, which traders are monitoring for shifts in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that determine whether the highest reading settles at 35 °C or edges into 36 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
音量
$1,579終了日
2026/08/11マーケット開始日
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a daily maximum temperature most likely between 34–36 °C on August 11, 2026, with trader probabilities tightly clustered around 35 °C (31.5 %) and 36 °C (31.0 %).** This reflects the typical late-summer pattern in the Pearl River Delta, where high solar insolation under subtropical high pressure is frequently modulated by afternoon convective thunderstorms driven by monsoon moisture and sea-breeze convergence. Recent model runs show modest spread in the timing and coverage of these storms; earlier or more widespread rain would cap the peak near 34 °C, while delayed or localized convection allows surface temperatures to reach 36 °C before cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, but 2026 conditions have trended slightly warmer, consistent with the market’s elevated odds above 34 °C. Key near-term updates will come from the China Meteorological Administration’s daily guidance and updated global model outputs (GFS/ECMWF) within the next 24–48 hours, which traders are monitoring for shifts in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that determine whether the highest reading settles at 35 °C or edges into 36 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,579終了日
2026/08/11マーケット開始日
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ET**Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a daily maximum temperature most likely between 34–36 °C on August 11, 2026, with trader probabilities tightly clustered around 35 °C (31.5 %) and 36 °C (31.0 %).** This reflects the typical late-summer pattern in the Pearl River Delta, where high solar insolation under subtropical high pressure is frequently modulated by afternoon convective thunderstorms driven by monsoon moisture and sea-breeze convergence. Recent model runs show modest spread in the timing and coverage of these storms; earlier or more widespread rain would cap the peak near 34 °C, while delayed or localized convection allows surface temperatures to reach 36 °C before cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32 °C, but 2026 conditions have trended slightly warmer, consistent with the market’s elevated odds above 34 °C. Key near-term updates will come from the China Meteorological Administration’s daily guidance and updated global model outputs (GFS/ECMWF) within the next 24–48 hours, which traders are monitoring for shifts in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that determine whether the highest reading settles at 35 °C or edges into 36 °C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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