Current forecast models from agencies including Mexico's national meteorological service indicate a daytime high in Mexico City of 24–27°C on August 1, with partly cloudy skies and typical rainy-season moisture limiting strong solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. This positions the 26°C outcome as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability, followed by 27°C, as ensemble guidance shows modest warming potential from recent stable atmospheric patterns but low likelihood of exceeding 28°C. Historical August averages near 24–25°C provide baseline context, while urban effects and variable cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty reflected in the clustered trader sentiment around mid-20s readings. Updated model runs expected later today could refine the peak before official resolution at Benito Juárez International Airport.