Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Hungarian election contest, with TISZA's projected popular vote clustered at 46-50% (31.5% implied probability) amid neck-and-neck polls against Fidesz. Recent surveys from reputable pollsters show TISZA at 44-48% and Fidesz at 42-46%, driven by Péter Magyar's anti-corruption surge post-scandals eroding Orbán's long dominance, countered by Fidesz's rural base and state media edge. High youth turnout could boost TISZA toward 50%+, while low participation or economic messaging favors Fidesz under 46%; upcoming debates and endorsements may tip the scales in this volatile race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日46-50% 32%
50-54% 25%
42-46% 18%
54%+ 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 12, 2026
<42%
11%
42-46%
18%
46-50%
32%
50-54%
25%
54%+
15%
46-50% 32%
50-54% 25%
42-46% 18%
54%+ 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 12, 2026
<42%
$1,712 Vol.
11%
42-46%
$612 Vol.
18%
46-50%
$309 Vol.
32%
50-54%
$783 Vol.
25%
54%+
$617 Vol.
15%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 16, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$4,032終了日
Apr 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
音量
$4,032終了日
Apr 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Hungarian election contest, with TISZA's projected popular vote clustered at 46-50% (31.5% implied probability) amid neck-and-neck polls against Fidesz. Recent surveys from reputable pollsters show TISZA at 44-48% and Fidesz at 42-46%, driven by Péter Magyar's anti-corruption surge post-scandals eroding Orbán's long dominance, countered by Fidesz's rural base and state media edge. High youth turnout could boost TISZA toward 50%+, while low participation or economic messaging favors Fidesz under 46%; upcoming debates and endorsements may tip the scales in this volatile race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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