The rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries—Miller-Meeks defeating David Pautsch and Bohannan defeating Travis Terrell—setting up a third consecutive contest in this R+4 district. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifying it as a priority flip target. Recent primary results and the broader midterm environment, where House control often shifts, have contributed to the market’s 72% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. No major new polling has emerged since the primaries, leaving national trends, candidate fundraising, and district voting patterns as primary variables that could still influence final margins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
72%
共和党
33%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$817 Vol.
72%
共和党
$771 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries—Miller-Meeks defeating David Pautsch and Bohannan defeating Travis Terrell—setting up a third consecutive contest in this R+4 district. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifying it as a priority flip target. Recent primary results and the broader midterm environment, where House control often shifts, have contributed to the market’s 72% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. No major new polling has emerged since the primaries, leaving national trends, candidate fundraising, and district voting patterns as primary variables that could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
音量
$1,588終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries—Miller-Meeks defeating David Pautsch and Bohannan defeating Travis Terrell—setting up a third consecutive contest in this R+4 district. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifying it as a priority flip target. Recent primary results and the broader midterm environment, where House control often shifts, have contributed to the market’s 72% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. No major new polling has emerged since the primaries, leaving national trends, candidate fundraising, and district voting patterns as primary variables that could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,588終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District has shaped trader positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 2 primaries—Miller-Meeks defeating David Pautsch and Bohannan defeating Travis Terrell—setting up a third consecutive contest in this R+4 district. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifying it as a priority flip target. Recent primary results and the broader midterm environment, where House control often shifts, have contributed to the market’s 72% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. No major new polling has emerged since the primaries, leaving national trends, candidate fundraising, and district voting patterns as primary variables that could still influence final margins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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