This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Indonesia maintains no formal diplomatic relations with Israel as of mid-2026, consistent with its longstanding policy tying recognition to a two-state solution and Palestinian statehood. President Prabowo Subianto has signaled pragmatic flexibility, including a September 2025 UN General Assembly statement recognizing Israel's security needs alongside support for Palestinian independence, yet he has reiterated the precondition for ties. A reported October 2025 visit was denied, reflecting domestic political constraints and strong public opposition. Key drivers include U.S. diplomatic incentives under the second Trump administration to expand the Abraham Accords framework, Indonesia's OECD accession bid requiring unanimous approval including from Israel, and the February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement linking economic alignment to security cooperation. Progress remains contingent on Israeli-Palestinian developments, coalition dynamics in Jakarta, and any scheduled multilateral talks or OECD milestones within the market resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indonesia maintains no formal diplomatic relations with Israel as of mid-2026, consistent with its longstanding policy tying recognition to a two-state solution and Palestinian statehood. President Prabowo Subianto has signaled pragmatic flexibility, including a September 2025 UN General Assembly statement recognizing Israel's security needs alongside support for Palestinian independence, yet he has reiterated the precondition for ties. A reported October 2025 visit was denied, reflecting domestic political constraints and strong public opposition. Key drivers include U.S. diplomatic incentives under the second Trump administration to expand the Abraham Accords framework, Indonesia's OECD accession bid requiring unanimous approval including from Israel, and the February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement linking economic alignment to security cooperation. Progress remains contingent on Israeli-Palestinian developments, coalition dynamics in Jakarta, and any scheduled multilateral talks or OECD milestones within the market resolution window.
Market falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Mar 4 2026
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian government clarifies it will not coordinate with Israeli forces in Gaza peacekeeping, emphasizing no recognition of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
This statement reinforced Indonesia’s stance against practical recognition of Israel, contributing to.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission but avoid Israeli-controlled areas to prevent recognition of Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
This cautious approach highlighted Indonesia’s balancing act, reducing normalization prospects.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward Israel
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Indonesia’s firm stance on Palestine despite Israel’s regional engagement signaled little near-term change.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Indonesia’s continued support for Palestine despite Israel’s inclusion in the peace board signaled no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Nov 11 2025
Ongoing reports of quiet trade and cooperation persist but no formal diplomatic ties established
Despite economic and security contacts, the lack of official diplomatic announcements kept market confidence low.
Oct 22 2025
Indonesian hosting of the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships excludes Israeli athletes, reflecting political sensitivities
This event underscored Indonesia’s reluctance to cross certain diplomatic lines, maintaining status quo.
Oct 13 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo attends a world leaders’ summit on ending Gaza war, signaling a softer tone but no formal diplomatic steps
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Prabowo’s engagement raised hopes for future normalization but no concrete announcements were made.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge that President Subianto plans an official visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and stalled progress, causing a slight.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge of Prabowo’s planned visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and domestic resistance, causing a
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto states willingness to normalize relations with Israel only if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Prabowo’s conditional stance signaled openness but maintained a significant diplomatic hurdle, tempering market optimism.
May 28 2025
Indonesia’s OECD accession process requires diplomatic relations with Israel, but Indonesia maintains distance
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The OECD leverage creates diplomatic pressure but Indonesia’s reluctance to normalize without Palestinian recognition limits progress.
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto publicly states willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%20%
This announcement raised initial hopes for normalization but underscored the Palestinian recognition condition, tempering market optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Indonesia maintains no formal diplomatic relations with Israel as of mid-2026, consistent with its longstanding policy tying recognition to a two-state solution and Palestinian statehood. President Prabowo Subianto has signaled pragmatic flexibility, including a September 2025 UN General Assembly statement recognizing Israel's security needs alongside support for Palestinian independence, yet he has reiterated the precondition for ties. A reported October 2025 visit was denied, reflecting domestic political constraints and strong public opposition. Key drivers include U.S. diplomatic incentives under the second Trump administration to expand the Abraham Accords framework, Indonesia's OECD accession bid requiring unanimous approval including from Israel, and the February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement linking economic alignment to security cooperation. Progress remains contingent on Israeli-Palestinian developments, coalition dynamics in Jakarta, and any scheduled multilateral talks or OECD milestones within the market resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indonesia maintains no formal diplomatic relations with Israel as of mid-2026, consistent with its longstanding policy tying recognition to a two-state solution and Palestinian statehood. President Prabowo Subianto has signaled pragmatic flexibility, including a September 2025 UN General Assembly statement recognizing Israel's security needs alongside support for Palestinian independence, yet he has reiterated the precondition for ties. A reported October 2025 visit was denied, reflecting domestic political constraints and strong public opposition. Key drivers include U.S. diplomatic incentives under the second Trump administration to expand the Abraham Accords framework, Indonesia's OECD accession bid requiring unanimous approval including from Israel, and the February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia reciprocal trade agreement linking economic alignment to security cooperation. Progress remains contingent on Israeli-Palestinian developments, coalition dynamics in Jakarta, and any scheduled multilateral talks or OECD milestones within the market resolution window.
Market falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Mar 4 2026
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian government clarifies it will not coordinate with Israeli forces in Gaza peacekeeping, emphasizing no recognition of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
This statement reinforced Indonesia’s stance against practical recognition of Israel, contributing to.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission but avoid Israeli-controlled areas to prevent recognition of Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
This cautious approach highlighted Indonesia’s balancing act, reducing normalization prospects.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward Israel
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Indonesia’s firm stance on Palestine despite Israel’s regional engagement signaled little near-term change.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Indonesia’s continued support for Palestine despite Israel’s inclusion in the peace board signaled no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Nov 11 2025
Ongoing reports of quiet trade and cooperation persist but no formal diplomatic ties established
Despite economic and security contacts, the lack of official diplomatic announcements kept market confidence low.
Oct 22 2025
Indonesian hosting of the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships excludes Israeli athletes, reflecting political sensitivities
This event underscored Indonesia’s reluctance to cross certain diplomatic lines, maintaining status quo.
Oct 13 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo attends a world leaders’ summit on ending Gaza war, signaling a softer tone but no formal diplomatic steps
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Prabowo’s engagement raised hopes for future normalization but no concrete announcements were made.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge that President Subianto plans an official visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and stalled progress, causing a slight.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge of Prabowo’s planned visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and domestic resistance, causing a
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto states willingness to normalize relations with Israel only if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Prabowo’s conditional stance signaled openness but maintained a significant diplomatic hurdle, tempering market optimism.
May 28 2025
Indonesia’s OECD accession process requires diplomatic relations with Israel, but Indonesia maintains distance
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The OECD leverage creates diplomatic pressure but Indonesia’s reluctance to normalize without Palestinian recognition limits progress.
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto publicly states willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%20%
This announcement raised initial hopes for normalization but underscored the Palestinian recognition condition, tempering market optimism.
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