Redistricting proposals advanced by Louisiana lawmakers in May 2026 represent the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the LA-06 House race. The state Senate passed a map that would redraw the district around predominantly white communities in the Baton Rouge area, removing its status as a majority-Black seat currently held by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields. Fields has indicated he will not pursue reelection under the new lines or challenge in a primary. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican as of early June. With the November 3 primary and subsequent general election under the majority-vote system, these boundary changes create structural advantages for Republican candidates that align with the current 83.5% implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$58,169 Vol.
$58,169 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
84%
民主党
16%
$58,169 Vol.
$58,169 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$31,586 Vol.
84%
民主党
$26,583 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting proposals advanced by Louisiana lawmakers in May 2026 represent the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the LA-06 House race. The state Senate passed a map that would redraw the district around predominantly white communities in the Baton Rouge area, removing its status as a majority-Black seat currently held by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields. Fields has indicated he will not pursue reelection under the new lines or challenge in a primary. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican as of early June. With the November 3 primary and subsequent general election under the majority-vote system, these boundary changes create structural advantages for Republican candidates that align with the current 83.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$58,169終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting proposals advanced by Louisiana lawmakers in May 2026 represent the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the LA-06 House race. The state Senate passed a map that would redraw the district around predominantly white communities in the Baton Rouge area, removing its status as a majority-Black seat currently held by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields. Fields has indicated he will not pursue reelection under the new lines or challenge in a primary. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican as of early June. With the November 3 primary and subsequent general election under the majority-vote system, these boundary changes create structural advantages for Republican candidates that align with the current 83.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$58,169終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting proposals advanced by Louisiana lawmakers in May 2026 represent the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring a Republican victory in the LA-06 House race. The state Senate passed a map that would redraw the district around predominantly white communities in the Baton Rouge area, removing its status as a majority-Black seat currently held by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields. Fields has indicated he will not pursue reelection under the new lines or challenge in a primary. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Republican as of early June. With the November 3 primary and subsequent general election under the majority-vote system, these boundary changes create structural advantages for Republican candidates that align with the current 83.5% implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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