**Trader consensus on the lowest temperature in Jinan on September 7 reflects substantial forecast uncertainty around an incoming cold-air intrusion.** Historical September overnight lows average near 17–18 °C, but recent model runs diverge sharply on the timing and strength of northerly flow expected to arrive overnight. Some guidance keeps the minimum near or above 22 °C under lingering warm advection, while others indicate a sharper drop toward 12 °C or below if the front advances earlier than anticipated. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble spreads will be the key near-term catalysts, with resolution hinging on whether observed minimums fall inside or outside the 13–21 °C band that currently commands balanced but lower-implied probabilities.