The dominant 93% market-implied probability for a 19°C low in London on September 3 reflects the Met Office forecast of a minimum nighttime temperature of 19°C under mild, humid conditions with southwest winds and gradual cloud increase. Current observations from London Heathrow and surrounding stations show overnight readings holding near 19–20°C, consistent with ensemble model consensus that limits radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12.6°C underscore the anomalously warm setup driven by recent high pressure and Atlantic flow. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer skies or localized measurement differences at official stations, though updated guidance through the evening window would be needed to shift outcomes below 18°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月3日のロンドンの最低気温は？
9月3日のロンドンの最低気温は？
19°C 93%
18°C 7%
17°C 1.5%
15°C <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/03
13°C以下
<1%
14℃
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
93%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23℃以上
<1%
19°C 93%
18°C 7%
17°C 1.5%
15°C <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/03
13°C以下
$70 Vol.
<1%
14℃
$70 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$171 Vol.
1%
16°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$377 Vol.
2%
18°C
$1,650 Vol.
7%
19°C
$1,814 Vol.
93%
20°C
$1,911 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$165 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
23℃以上
$50 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 93% market-implied probability for a 19°C low in London on September 3 reflects the Met Office forecast of a minimum nighttime temperature of 19°C under mild, humid conditions with southwest winds and gradual cloud increase. Current observations from London Heathrow and surrounding stations show overnight readings holding near 19–20°C, consistent with ensemble model consensus that limits radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12.6°C underscore the anomalously warm setup driven by recent high pressure and Atlantic flow. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer skies or localized measurement differences at official stations, though updated guidance through the evening window would be needed to shift outcomes below 18°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$6,462終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 93% market-implied probability for a 19°C low in London on September 3 reflects the Met Office forecast of a minimum nighttime temperature of 19°C under mild, humid conditions with southwest winds and gradual cloud increase. Current observations from London Heathrow and surrounding stations show overnight readings holding near 19–20°C, consistent with ensemble model consensus that limits radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12.6°C underscore the anomalously warm setup driven by recent high pressure and Atlantic flow. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer skies or localized measurement differences at official stations, though updated guidance through the evening window would be needed to shift outcomes below 18°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$6,462終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThe dominant 93% market-implied probability for a 19°C low in London on September 3 reflects the Met Office forecast of a minimum nighttime temperature of 19°C under mild, humid conditions with southwest winds and gradual cloud increase. Current observations from London Heathrow and surrounding stations show overnight readings holding near 19–20°C, consistent with ensemble model consensus that limits radiative cooling. Historical September averages near 12.6°C underscore the anomalously warm setup driven by recent high pressure and Atlantic flow. A realistic challenge could arise from clearer skies or localized measurement differences at official stations, though updated guidance through the evening window would be needed to shift outcomes below 18°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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