Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline inflation easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest since 2020—has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the 2026 annual rate at 38.3% implied probability. Subdued energy prices, weaker domestic demand, and Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% support continued moderation, though sticky services and core inflation near 3.95% introduce uncertainty that favors the adjacent 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5%. Market-implied odds reflect the closely contested path, with Banxico projecting convergence to the 3% target only in late 2027 amid risks from trade and weather factors. Key upcoming catalysts include the next inflation releases and Banxico communications.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.50%〜3.99% 39.9%
4.00%〜4.49% 29%
4.50%~4.99% 8%
3.00%〜3.49% 7.3%
$63,958 Vol.
$63,958 Vol.
2.50%未満
1%
2.50%から2.99%
5%
3.00%〜3.49%
7%
3.50%〜3.99%
38%
4.00%〜4.49%
29%
4.50%~4.99%
8%
5.00%から5.49%
4%
5.50%以上
3%
3.50%〜3.99% 39.9%
4.00%〜4.49% 29%
4.50%~4.99% 8%
3.00%〜3.49% 7.3%
$63,958 Vol.
$63,958 Vol.
2.50%未満
1%
2.50%から2.99%
5%
3.00%〜3.49%
7%
3.50%〜3.99%
38%
4.00%〜4.49%
29%
4.50%~4.99%
8%
5.00%から5.49%
4%
5.50%以上
3%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
マーケット開始日: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline inflation easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest since 2020—has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the 2026 annual rate at 38.3% implied probability. Subdued energy prices, weaker domestic demand, and Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% support continued moderation, though sticky services and core inflation near 3.95% introduce uncertainty that favors the adjacent 4.00–4.49% outcome at 28.5%. Market-implied odds reflect the closely contested path, with Banxico projecting convergence to the 3% target only in late 2027 amid risks from trade and weather factors. Key upcoming catalysts include the next inflation releases and Banxico communications.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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