Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0.0～0.5％ 100.0%
0.0%未満 <1%
0.5〜1.0% <1%
1.0～1.5％ <1%
$6,917 Vol.
$6,917 Vol.
2026/04/30
0.0%未満
いいえ
0.0～0.5％
はい
0.5〜1.0%
いいえ
1.0～1.5％
いいえ
1.5～2.0％
いいえ
2.0～2.5%
いいえ
>2.5％
いいえ
0.0～0.5％ 100.0%
0.0%未満 <1%
0.5〜1.0% <1%
1.0～1.5％ <1%
$6,917 Vol.
$6,917 Vol.
2026/04/30
0.0%未満
$877 Vol.
いいえ
0.0～0.5％
$1,162 Vol.
はい
0.5〜1.0%
$997 Vol.
いいえ
1.0～1.5％
$1,235 Vol.
いいえ
1.5～2.0％
$1,320 Vol.
いいえ
2.0～2.5%
$641 Vol.
いいえ
>2.5％
$684 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
音量
$6,917終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$6,917終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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