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政治·受賞歴

2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者

icon for 2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者
政治·受賞歴

2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者

ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ 10%

ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー 7.0%

UNRWA 4.8%

教皇レオ14世 3.4%

Polymarket

$23,100,318 Vol.

ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ 10%

ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー 7.0%

UNRWA 4.8%

教皇レオ14世 3.4%

Polymarket

$23,100,318 Vol.

icon for ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ

ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ

$282,437 Vol.

10%

icon for ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー

ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー

$770,359 Vol.

7%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$2,037,394 Vol.

5%

icon for 教皇レオ14世

教皇レオ14世

$803,947 Vol.

3%

icon for タミム・ビン・ハマド・アル＝サーニー

タミム・ビン・ハマド・アル＝サーニー

$774,970 Vol.

3%

icon for ドナルド・トランプ

ドナルド・トランプ

$4,202,196 Vol.

3%

icon for 国際司法裁判所

国際司法裁判所

$891,980 Vol.

2%

icon for ジュリアン・アサンジ

ジュリアン・アサンジ

$849,049 Vol.

1%

icon for ナレンドラ・モディ

ナレンドラ・モディ

$680,669 Vol.

1%

icon for グレタ・トゥーンベリ

グレタ・トゥーンベリ

$1,450,302 Vol.

1%

icon for アントニオ・グテーレス

アントニオ・グテーレス

$616,342 Vol.

1%

icon for アフメド・アル＝シャラー

アフメド・アル＝シャラー

$1,255,595 Vol.

1%

icon for 習近平

習近平

$1,432,077 Vol.

1%

icon for ムハンマド・ビン・サルマン

ムハンマド・ビン・サルマン

$1,161,607 Vol.

1%

icon for カーレド・マシャール

カーレド・マシャール

$864,786 Vol.

1%

icon for レジェップ・タイイップ・エルドアン

レジェップ・タイイップ・エルドアン

$1,049,650 Vol.

1%

icon for チャーリー・カーク

チャーリー・カーク

$1,242,979 Vol.

1%

icon for イーロン・マスク

イーロン・マスク

$1,160,289 Vol.

<1%

icon for ウラジーミル・プーチン

ウラジーミル・プーチン

$894,751 Vol.

<1%

icon for ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ

ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ

$678,939 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya holds the market's narrow lead at 9.5% implied probability thanks to her sustained public advocacy and the enduring legacy of her late husband, creating modest trader consensus amid a highly fragmented field. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows at 7% on the strength of Ukraine's ongoing resistance narrative, while organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support for humanitarian and legal efforts in conflict zones. With no dominant frontrunner and probabilities under 10% across the board, the market reflects the Nobel committee's confidential process, historical preference for surprise organizational winners, and multiple active global crises that prevent any single campaign from consolidating momentum ahead of the October announcement. Late developments could still shift the tight race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
音量
$23,100,318
終了日
2026/10/10
マーケット開始日
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya holds the market's narrow lead at 9.5% implied probability thanks to her sustained public advocacy and the enduring legacy of her late husband, creating modest trader consensus amid a highly fragmented field. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows at 7% on the strength of Ukraine's ongoing resistance narrative, while organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support for humanitarian and legal efforts in conflict zones. With no dominant frontrunner and probabilities under 10% across the board, the market reflects the Nobel committee's confidential process, historical preference for surprise organizational winners, and multiple active global crises that prevent any single campaign from consolidating momentum ahead of the October announcement. Late developments could still shift the tight race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
音量
$23,100,318
終了日
2026/10/10
マーケット開始日
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

関連

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2027年以前にトランプ、プーチン、ゼレンスキーが一緒にいるのが見られるか？

8%
はい
icon for トランプ、プーチン、ゼレンスキーは2027年前に会談するか？

トランプ、プーチン、ゼレンスキーは2027年前に会談するか？

8%
はい
icon for ジョシュ・アレンは2026年のNFL MVPを獲得するでしょうか？

ジョシュ・アレンは2026年のNFL MVPを獲得するでしょうか？

13%
はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」はPolymarket上の20個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ」で10%、次いで「ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー」が7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、10¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に10%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」は$23.1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Oct 16, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている20個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ユーリヤ・ナワリナヤ」で10%であり、市場がこの結果に10%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー」で7%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年ノーベル平和賞受賞者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。