With the 2027 Oscars still months away from any meaningful precursor activity, the Best Actress market remains wide open, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across most names and the modest pricing on early standouts like Julianne Moore and Inde Navarrette. No 2026 releases have yet generated the guild momentum, critics-circle wins, or festival buzz needed to separate frontrunners, leaving trader consensus driven by historical patterns rather than current campaigns. Factors such as an actress’s recent box-office draw, prior Academy recognition, or attachment to high-profile fall festival titles will likely dictate the first real shifts once eligibility films begin screening. Expect volatility to rise after the Toronto and New York festivals and once SAG-AFTRA and PGA nominations arrive in early 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日オスカー2027 ：主演女優賞受賞
オスカー2027 ：主演女優賞受賞
Julianne Moore 28%
インディ・ナバレッテ 23%
Renate Reinsve 16%
Rachel Brosnahan 6.6%
$44,352 Vol.
$44,352 Vol.
2027/03/14
Julianne Moore
28%
インディ・ナバレッテ
23%
Renate Reinsve
16%
Rachel Brosnahan
7%
Ruth Madeley
7%
Sophie Okonedo
7%
Virginie Efira
6%
Léa Seydoux
6%
Sandra Hüller
5%
Michelle Williams
5%
Scarlett Johansson
5%
Julianne Moore 28%
インディ・ナバレッテ 23%
Renate Reinsve 16%
Rachel Brosnahan 6.6%
$44,352 Vol.
$44,352 Vol.
2027/03/14
Julianne Moore
$31,669 Vol.
28%
インディ・ナバレッテ
$1,148 Vol.
23%
Renate Reinsve
$10,126 Vol.
16%
Rachel Brosnahan
$20 Vol.
7%
Ruth Madeley
$0 Vol.
7%
Sophie Okonedo
$10 Vol.
7%
Virginie Efira
$5 Vol.
6%
Léa Seydoux
$467 Vol.
6%
Sandra Hüller
$805 Vol.
5%
Michelle Williams
$97 Vol.
5%
Scarlett Johansson
$5 Vol.
5%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars still months away from any meaningful precursor activity, the Best Actress market remains wide open, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across most names and the modest pricing on early standouts like Julianne Moore and Inde Navarrette. No 2026 releases have yet generated the guild momentum, critics-circle wins, or festival buzz needed to separate frontrunners, leaving trader consensus driven by historical patterns rather than current campaigns. Factors such as an actress’s recent box-office draw, prior Academy recognition, or attachment to high-profile fall festival titles will likely dictate the first real shifts once eligibility films begin screening. Expect volatility to rise after the Toronto and New York festivals and once SAG-AFTRA and PGA nominations arrive in early 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
音量
$44,352終了日
2027/03/14マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars still months away from any meaningful precursor activity, the Best Actress market remains wide open, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across most names and the modest pricing on early standouts like Julianne Moore and Inde Navarrette. No 2026 releases have yet generated the guild momentum, critics-circle wins, or festival buzz needed to separate frontrunners, leaving trader consensus driven by historical patterns rather than current campaigns. Factors such as an actress’s recent box-office draw, prior Academy recognition, or attachment to high-profile fall festival titles will likely dictate the first real shifts once eligibility films begin screening. Expect volatility to rise after the Toronto and New York festivals and once SAG-AFTRA and PGA nominations arrive in early 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$44,352終了日
2027/03/14マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With the 2027 Oscars still months away from any meaningful precursor activity, the Best Actress market remains wide open, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across most names and the modest pricing on early standouts like Julianne Moore and Inde Navarrette. No 2026 releases have yet generated the guild momentum, critics-circle wins, or festival buzz needed to separate frontrunners, leaving trader consensus driven by historical patterns rather than current campaigns. Factors such as an actress’s recent box-office draw, prior Academy recognition, or attachment to high-profile fall festival titles will likely dictate the first real shifts once eligibility films begin screening. Expect volatility to rise after the Toronto and New York festivals and once SAG-AFTRA and PGA nominations arrive in early 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問