Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$22,501 Vol.
$22,501 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$22,501 Vol.
$22,501 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$14,337 Vol.
94%
民主党
$8,164 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$22,501終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,501終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, covering southern and south-central areas including Norman and Lawton, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 20 points. Incumbent Tom Cole, seeking reelection in the November 2026 general election, holds substantial fundraising advantages and faces only a minor primary challenge on June 16, while Democratic contenders compete in their own primary the same day. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican due to consistent voter patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. The 93.5% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these structural factors, though outcomes could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as an unexpected primary upset followed by general-election turmoil or late-cycle national realignment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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